Tuesday, December 30, 2008

The grand totals

Well, with another NFL season mercifully consigned to the history books, it's time to revisit the bloodbath that was my preseason predictions. I haven't looked over the whole thing yet, but based on the first one it won't be pretty. Let's get this over with.


NOTE: I don't really know html coding that well, so I have no idea why there's all that blank space before each table. I copied the table code from some other site, and it looked fine when I opened the file in Explorer, and I was chuffed, but now it looks like this in Blogger. If anyone knows why, leave a comment.


NFC West






































Team Line Pick Wins Result
Glendale 8 4 (under) 9 Loss
Saint Louis 61/2 5 (under) 2 Win
San Francisco 6 3 (under) 7 Loss
Seattle 81/2 11 (over) 4 Loss

Total: 1-3


Pretty ignominious start here. With the Hawks out of the way and no good teams remaining, the Cards finally won with nothing more than a strong passing game. They went 6-0 in the division. If Seattle has any healthy receivers, do the Cards still hit that over? If they had to play the Niners late, after Singletary took over, do they still hit it?


I could make excuses all day, I suppose. Bottom line is I didn't see much changing from last season, a tendency which I believe will become apparent as the root cause of several of the more disasterous results as we peruse these things. Moving on.


NFC South






































Team Line Pick Wins Result
Atlanta 41/2 5 (over) 11 Win
Charlotte 71/2 9 (over) 12 Win
New Orleans 81/2 8 (under) 8 Win
Tampa 8 7 (under) 9 Loss

Total: 3-1


Not bad. I was close on some of these. Interesting to note that I hit New Orleans total exactly. On the other hand, I was way off about Atlanta, but a win's a win.


AFC West






































Team Line Pick Wins Result
Denver 71/2 9 (over) 8 Win
Kansas City 51/2 5 (under) 2 Win
Oakland 6 4 (under) 5 Win
San Diego 101/2 12 (over) 8 Loss

Total: 3-1


Okay, feelin' pretty good here. The only one I really blew was San Diego, and I was within a game on two of 'em. I actually wrote that I couldn't decide between 4 or 5 for Oakland, but that I was picking the under either way, so I almost hit that one right on. How long will the magic last?


AFC South






































Team Line Pick Wins Result
Houston 71/2 8 (over) 8 Win
Indianapolis 11 12 (over) 12 Win
Jacksonville 10 13 (over) 5 Loss
Nashville 8 10 (over) 13 Win

Total: 3-1


Wow. 3 hits, and two of them I picked the exact number. Still, the most glaring feature here is that I called the Jags going over the safest bet of the preseason. What do I know? I also said Houston was good enough to win as many as 10. But again, a win's a win.


AFC North






































Team Line Pick Wins Result
Baltimore 6 6 (push) 11 No bet
Cincinnati 7 6 (under) 4 Win
Cleveland 8 9 (over) 4 Loss
Pittsburgh 9 10 (over) 12 Win

Total: 2-1


I know I'm not the only person who blew that Cleveland pick. I had a big argument with M— at work the other night about whether or not the Browns had way too many prime time games this year. My argument was that in hindsight, well yeah, obviously. But before the season this was a team coming off a 10-win season that was expected to contend for the division title this year. Well, whatever, so it didn't work out. Better luck next coaching staff.


I was also way off about Baltimore, but since I came up with the same number of wins as the line, I escaped unscathed. I think I got pretty lucky this year. I'm doing okay so far.


NFC North






































Team Line Pick Wins Result
Chicago 71/2 6 (under) 9 Loss
Detroit 61/2 6 (under) 0 Win
Green Bay 81/2 10 (over) 6 Loss
Minneapolis 81/2 9 (over) 10 Win

Total: 2-2


It's funny, that Pack pick looked spot on by the end of September. What a difference a whole season makes. Also, even though I got the Detroit pick right I feel like I should count it as a loss for picking them to win that many.


AFC East






































Team Line Pick Wins Result
East Rutherford 8 7 (under) 9 Loss
Foxborough 12 14 (over) 11 Loss
Miami Gardens 51/2 4 (under) 11 Loss
Orchard Park 71/2 7 (under) 7 Win

Total: 1-3


Man, took a bath on this one. Hit the Bills spot on, though. Let's just keep going.


NFC East






































Team Line Pick Wins Result
East Rutherford 81/2 10 (over) 12 Win
Irving 101/2 12 (over) 9 Loss
Landover 71/2 9 (over) 8 Win
Philadelphia 81/2 11 (over) 91/2 Win

Total: 3-1


And we finish on a strong note. Does a tie count as a half in Vegas? I doubt it, but they still hit the over. Man, I sure overrated that Cowboys team, didn't I? Me an' everybody else out there.


Final total: 18-13


That's actually pretty respectable, and I think my best year yet. Now I'm feelin' good. Bring on next year's lines.


On the down side, I only picked three division winners, and two of them had sub-1 odds. The only good one I picked was Carolina at 11-4, and I wrote that I didn't feel confident enough to bet it. Had I bet all eight of my picks they would have paid out 513-1120, good for a loss of about half my money. Good thing I don't bet. Much.

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