NFC East preview

Whoa, hey! Guess who's been blowing off previewing the season? I've run through the early betting lines for the past couple of years over here, and was surprised when two people asked why I hadn't done it yet this year. Surprised because I didn't really think anybody read them. Live and learn.

Is it too late for this season? Hell no. I'll try to blast through the whole league by Sunday. Since two of its teams are playing Thursday, I'll start with the NFC East. Also, this year I'll try to pick every line rather than just my "best bets," which tend to shake out just under .500 anyway. The numbers, as always, provided by my good friends at Sportsbook.com, which, believe it or not, still isn't blocked at my office. For God's sake, they block fucking YouTube here. I mean there. I'm not doing this shit at work. Seriously. That'd be a betrayal of my employer's trust. Fuck that.

East Rutherford Giants

Win total: 8¹/₂

Division champ: 9-2

SB champ: 25-1

They're the defending champs and Vegas thinks they'll barely go .500. You know how coaches clip quotes from the paper where opponents run their mouths? The press calls it bulletin board material. Do you think coaches ever use Vegas lines as bulletin board material? "Well men, somebody out there thinks you're set to lose this Sunday. To lose by seven-and-a-half points. Anybody feel like provin' 'em wrong?"

Seriously, everybody knows the Giants weren't a dominant team last year, they just got hot at the right time and happened to match up well position-for-position against the Pats. This year the pass rush won't be nearly as good and Eli may never play four good games in a row for the rest of his career. Their schedule includes eight games against likely playoff teams (Sea, @Cle, @Pit, Dalx2, Phix2, MN) , including Dal & Phi back-to-back both times. They can win half those games, I guess. By my count, they get three OK teams (Wasx2, Car), so I'll give 'em two outta three, then five crappy teams (@StL, Cin, SF, Bal, @AZ), and I'll give 'em four of those. That's ten wins. Over.

Irving Cowboys
Win total: 10¹/₂

Division champ: 5-8

SB champ: 6-1

A lot of people are picking them to go to the Super Bowl, which means they're screwed. Not because Romo can't win in the playoffs (they used to say that about Manning Elder), but because the spotlight makes it hard to see in front of you. It always does. Plus I'm not sold on Wade Philips and probably never will be.

Six good teams (@Cle, Phix2, @GB, Sea, @Pit) including four straight to open the season, which is rough. I'll say four. Five OK teams (TB, NYGx2, Wasx2), three wins: this division's just too evenly matched for me to pick sweeps with anybody. And rounding out the schedule with five crappy teams (Cin, @AZ, @StL, SF, Bal) which I'm gonna call five wins, that makes twelve. Seems reasonable. Over.

Landover R------s
Win total: 7¹/₂

Division champ: 7-1

SB champ: 40-1

Everyone's picking them to come in last, and the sad thing is they probably will even though they could win, say, the NFCS in a walk. Hell, they could maybe even edge out Sea in the NFCW. Chalk this one up as a year of growing pains for Campbell and Zorn while they wait for the rest of the division to get a little older.

Seven good teams (Dalx2, Phix2, Cle, Pit, @Sea), three wins. Getting the upper half of the AFCN at home is nice, but that road game @Sea's a killer; I'm giving 'em two division splits and one of those AFCN games. Three OK teams (NYGx2, NO), they can take two of those. That leaves six crappy teams (AZ, StL, @Det, @Bal, @Cin, @SF), but four of 'em on the road. I'll give 'em both the home games and half the road ones for four. That's still nine wins. Man, this is a tough division. Over.

Philadelphia Eagles
Win total: 8¹/₂

Division champ: 5-2

SB champ: 25-1

Am I biased in favour of the Eags because I live in Philly? I'm not a fan, but since I'm a Jets fan they're not rivals either. I think I just feel sorry for their asshole fans who surround me.

No, that's not it. Even before I moved there Don McNabb was my favourite non-Jet in the league, and he still is. I just love watching that guy play. If he starts sixteen games this year they might beat out Dal for the pennant. If McNabb and Westbrook both start sixteen games I say they take the division and a playoff bye. Yeah, I said it (like it's gonna happen).

Worth noting, by the way, that this is the only team that plays in the city it claims to represent. Hell, half this division plays in the wrong state. Having just finished Bissinger's A Prayer For the City I've developed a powerful disdain for suburbs and all who inhabit them, so this has to count for some good karma.

Let's see, five good teams (Dalx2, Pit, @Sea, Cle), they can take three of those. Four OK teams (Wasx2, NYGx2), and... I know I said I'm picking all splits in this division, but Philly should sweep one of those teams, so three. (I realise this predictions for each team may contradict one another, but whatever, I'm not trying to pick individual games here, I'm actually trying to avoid it and just predict season-long trends.) That gives them a whopping seven shitty teams on their schedule. Look at this parade of futility: StL, @Chi, @SF, Atl, @Cin, @Bal, AZ. That's half their road schedule. They can win five of those if the whole team wears bedroom slippers. Total: eleven. Over, baby.

So when I run the schedules it looks like this:

Dal 12-4

Phi 11-5

NYG 10-6

Was 9-7

Like I said, tough division. Still, Phi and Dal may be too close to call, but I said I'd call 'em all and I'm callin' it: Cowboys. I just wouldn't bet it at 5-8.

As for the Super Bowl? Dal are everybody's pick, and 6-1 is a pretty weak payoff. Phi, on the other hand, have almost as good a shot at 25-1 odds. I'll, I mean I'd, take that.