Denver Broncos
Win total: 71/2
Division champ: 4-1
SB champ: 40-1
Boy, Shanahan's really lost his lustre of late, hasn't he? Even the Broncos running game, in which supposedly you or I could be a 1,000-yard back, has been a little off these last couple seasons. No one's talking about him as a "hot seat" candidate just yet, but if Cutler flops this year then they will next summer.
They play five good teams (SDx2, Jac, @NE, @Cle), of which they can beat maybe two. They've beat NE a couple times in the past few years, so they always play them well for some reason. They get two shots at SD, Jac at home... who knows? Then there's four OK teams on the docket (NO, TB, @Car, Buf), with three of 'em at home. Can they win three of these? I think so. They round it out with seven losers (Oakx2, KCx2, Mia, @Atl, @NYJ). This division always has a lot of intradivisional upsets, so I'm gonna take a chance here and only giv 'em four wins. That makes nine for the over. Even if I'm being too generous with the three out of four in the middle they still take eight, so I think this one's pretty safe.
Kansas City Chiefs
Win total: 51/2
Division champ: 18-1
SB champ: 200-1
Yes, Vegas really rates them worse than the Raiders. These guys suck, no two ways about it. They shoulda traded for Favre, he would have been a classic KC QB. Remember Joe Montana? They went to a conference title game with him.
On the other hand, they only have to play three good teams (@NE, SDx2), of which they will surely lose all three. Then they get seven mediocre teams (Denx2, @Car, TN, TB, NO, Buf) with five at home. Could they win three of these? I'm gonna go with two. And we have our six shitty teams (Oakx2, @Atl, @NYJ, Mia, @Cin) for... three wins? Y'think? Whatever, that's five and that's under. Good luck to whatever chump they draft next year. How 'bout a quarterback?
Oakland Raiders
Win total: 6
Division champ: 8-1
SB champ: 75-1
Oh Al. Still Brooklyn's finest. (Did you know that? Erasmus Hall High, baby, in the heart of Flatbush.) Still ornery as ever. There's a school of thought which states that the Raiders will not be good again until Al Davis dies. It's a morbid thought, but a depressingly realistic one as well. I just hope he lives long enough to sign Michael Vick.
Let's see, three good teams (SDx2, NE), same three as KC, and like KC they won't win any of them. Seven fence-sitters (Denx2, @Buf, @NO, Car, Hou, @TB) for... two wins? It's a stretch, but why not? That leaves six bumblers (KCx2, NYJ, @Bal, Atl, @Mia), and it's hard to give them three of those. Whatever. Four wins, five wins, either way they're under.
San Diego Chargers
Win total: 101/2
Division champ: 1-5
SB champ: 7-1
The cream of the division, and quite frankly a should-be champ whose window may close soon. How much longer will Tomlinson be in his prime? RBs don't last long, y'know. Time to grow up, Phil Rivers. Would they have won already had Eli agreed to play there? The mind wanders...
I think they need to hope that NE and Ind play each other early in the playoffs so they only have to beat one of them. On the other hand, with Jac on the rise, it may be a moot point this year.
They'll be testing their mettle against three good teams (NE, @Pit, Ind), and you know what? I think they can take two of those. Then there's six OK teams (Car, Denx2, @Buf, @NO, @TB) of which they oughta beat at least four. Which leaves a whopping seven shitty teams (NYJ, Oakx2, @Mia, KCx2, Atl), and if they can't win six of those, I don't know what to tell you. That's twelve, that's the over, let's take it.
So it shakes out like this:
SD 12- 4
Den 9- 7
KC 5-11
Oak 4-12
Pretty predictable, I guess, but I really don't see any of these teams surprising anyone. Maybe Den. Maybe. Has Den got what it takes to make me hesitate to bet SD to take the division at 1-5 odds. I guess not. I hate the number, but I feel pretty comfortable about them winning. As for the Super Bowl? At 7-1? Really, shouldn't they be more like 10-1? I don't like it. Too many other good teams in the conference, too much Norv Turner. I mean, you're basically betting 7-1 odds that Manning and Brady's injuries are worse than they look. No thanks.
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