Houston Texans
Win total: 71/2
Division champ: 10-1
SB champ: 60-1
These guys looked decent last year. Eight wins, maybe? I think the QB's that Schaub guy who used to be a backup in Atlanta. Truth is, they still haven't reached the tipping point where a team becomes good enough to start getting national telecasts, so I can't remember the last time I saw them play.
They have to play eight good teams (@Pit, Jacx2, Indx2, @MN, @Cle, @GB), all but two of 'em on the road. Tough draw. Hard to give 'em more than two of those. So then they get only two decent teams (TNx2), in fact just one but they play 'em twice. Let's give 'em a split. That leaves six shitty teams (Bal, Mia, Det, Cin, @Oak, Chi), ah, there's the home slate. They should clean up here, I'll give 'em at least five. That would make eight for the over, and I'm being conservative on some of these estimates; they could win as many as ten.
Indianapolis Colts
Win total: 11
Division champ: 2-3
SB champ: 8-1
Whose minor injury will prove more detrimental to his or his team's overall performance, Manning's or Brady's? I'm guessing they both wind up toughing it out for all sixteen, but it could wind up being worse for the Colts. Both QBs play with stacked offenses, so they'll still put up big numbers and win a bunch of games, but the Colts clearly play in the tougher division (three playoff teams last year), whereas NE might as well be playing in the ACC for all the competition they'll have to win theirs.
By the way, why the fuck did they play five preseason games? Was one of them in another country or something? I guess I'd know this if I paid any attention to the preseason.
Anyway, Colts play eight good teams (@MN, Jacx2, @GB, NE, @Pit, @SD, @Cle) with the same awful home-road split as Hou. At least they get NE at home, but other than that I could easily see them losing three of these. On the other hand, out of the four mediocre teams (Houx2, TNx2) and four lousy teams (Chi, Bal, Cin, Det) they have to play, including six at home, they probably won't lose more than one. Let's give 'em twelve for the over. Ind always wins that many anyway.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Win total: 10
Division champ: 3-2
SB champ: 12-1
That playoff game against Pit was awesome. I think I watched it at work on a little 5" B&W TV, so it was even better because I was on the clock. Seriously, Gerrard's a monster, and if they play that well this year and shore up their blitz a little they can challenge Ind. I know that's not a very original prediction, but they really do look that good.
They'll play only six good teams (Indx2, Pit, Cle, MN, GB) with five of those coming at home. I'm tempted to give them five wins here, but I'll play it safe and say four. Six decent teams (TNx2, Buf, Houx2, @Den), and I really don't think they'll lose more than one of those. As for the four lousy teams (@Cin, @Det, @Chi, @Bal), well, that's where you wanna fill out your road slate, right? Plus all four of those are in November or later, so if they make it through the first two months without more than a couple losses they should be on a roll. I'm givin' 'em all four. That's thirteen, way over. Seriously, I think this is the best preseason bet on the board.
Nashville Titans
Win total: 8
Division champ: 8-1
SB champ: 40-1
So... what's the deal with Vince Young? Is he a good quarterback or not? He keeps putting up shitty numbers and winning games. Does he have great "intangibles" (whatever) or is the rest of the team propping him up? He seems to epitomise one of my favourite sportscaster clichés, the all-he-does, as in, "All he does is win football games." I know they made the playoffs last year, but I have a feeling they're an 8-8 team just waiting to regress to the mean. Let's look at the slate.
We start with eight good teams (Jacx2, MN, Indx2, GB, Cle, Pit) and, like Jac, they drew all the good teams in the AFCN and NFCN at home. That lucky break should net them an extra win or so, so I'll say they take maybe half of those. We go to the decent teams, just two (Houx2), I'll give 'em a split. That leaves six bottom-feeders (@Cin, @Bal, @KC, @Chi, NYJ, @Det) and again, like Jac, that's where most of their road games fall. I wanna say four wins off the top of my head, but I just can't look at that sorry-ass line-up and picture them losing to more that one of 'em. That's five more for, surprisingly, ten wins. Even if they win nine they still hit the over by my reckoning.
Weird. The schedules look pretty tough but I still wound up picking the over for all four teams. I guess they all look pretty good. Inevitably, one of them will lose a few early, fall apart, and wind up being a major disappointment. Hou's the most obvious candidate, but maybe I'm just saying that because I know less about them than the other three. If Manning's knee doesn't hold up it might be Ind, but I think rock bottom for them is only about 8-8. I think Jac's pretty bulletproof (barring injuries, natch), and i just can't see Jeff Fisher letting a season get away in TN. This division might really be that stacked. My numbers break down like this:
Jac 13-3
Ind 12-4
TN 10-6
Hou 8-8
Which makes Jac a mighty tasty pick to take the division at 3-2. 12-1 on the Super Bowl's a pretty good pick too, as is 8-1 on Ind. If you're gonna pick a few teams for SB bets, I'd throw 'em both in there.
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