NFC North preview

Folks, we are in the midst of what are known as two-a-days. I'll be previewing two divisions a day, hopefully, which means I'll knock 'em all out in time for kickoff Sunday. Both teams in the Thursday game are in the NFCE, which I did yesterday, so we're all set there. I'd say I'm sorry they're so late this year, but really, if you're looking here for gambling advice you've got bigger problems.

Balls of Spaghetti loves him some Vikes, so in his honour the NFCN is up next. Interesting to note that all four teams actually play in the city/state they claim to represent. That's old school, baby.

Chicago Bears

Win total: 7¹/₂

Division champ: 11-2

SB champ: 50-1

Whatever. The Bears are the NFC's answer to the Bills: who cares? They decided that the QB who looked lost and overmatched in the Super Bowl two years ago still wasn't any good when they played him all season last year, so they're finally benching him in favour of a guy who sucked like four years ago. Why not hold a radio station contest and let a different fan start each week?

They're playing seven good teams (@Ind, Phi, MNx2, GBx2, Jac), of which they might beat two, presumably one them being Jac at home in December. Then they get five OK teams (@Car, TB, TN, NO, @Hou), of which they'll probably beat two. Again, they'll have southern sissies NO shivering by the lake in winter. That leaves only four shitty teams (Detx2, @Atl, @StL), and three of 'em are road games. Let's give 'em two here. Man, tough schedule. That comes to six wins for the under.

Detroit Lions

Win total: 6¹/₂

Division champ: 5-1

SB champ: 75-1

Detroit may suck worse than the Bears, but at least they're fun and interesting in a Chinese restaurant kitchen sort of way. Remember last year when it looked like they'd go over .500 before they lost like their last ten games or something? Hell of a ride. Isn't it amazing that Matt Millen still has a job? Isn't it even more amazing that we've been saying that for like five straight years now?

The Lions will play six good teams (GBx2, MNx2, Jac, @Ind), of which they'll be lucky to beat one. Six more OK teams (@Hou, Was, @Car, TB, TN, NO) with four of 'em at home. That's a lucky draw, they could beat two. Which leaves four shitty teams (@Atl, @SF, Chix2), three on the road and none after the first week in November. What the hell, I'll give 'em three, that's six total, barely limboing in under the line.

Green Bay Packers

Win total: 8¹/₂

Division champ: 2-1

SB champ: 30-1

Tough team to call because they've got everything in place for a deep post-season run except the most important position, which is being filled in by what might be described as an aging first-timer. Seriously, when did they draft Rodgers, like 2005? Still, even with their division's tough scheduling draw they should be one of the better teams in the conference.

They play six good teams (MNx2, Dal, @Sea, Ind, @Jac), four of them in the first half of the season, so you could see these guys falling behind and then storming back. Let's say they win three of those. Then five decent teams (@TB, @TN, @NO, Car, Hou), of which I'll give 'em another three. Rounding it out with five shitty teams (Detx2, Atl, Chix2), I'll grant them another four. That's ten wins for the over. Seems reasonable.

Minneapolis Vikings

Win total: 8¹/₂

Division champ: 5-6

SB champ: 12-1

The popular favourite, which means they're screwed. Basically in the same boat as GB, in that they've got all the pieces in place but the QB. Difference is that their QB actually has a few starts under his belt, plus he shares the backfield with an all-world RB, which should be enough to put them over the top.

We begin with a mere four good teams (GBx2, Ind, @Jac), and I'll give 'em two of those. On to six decent teams (Car, @TN, @NO, Hou, @TB, NYG), and no reason they can't take three of those. Finally, six crappy teams (Detx2, Chix2, @AZ, Atl), of which I shall grant them four. That's nine, barely over.

Interesting to note that, like GB, MN's schedule is kinda front-loaded, so they may have to make up ground late. Also interesting to note that Det's schedule is the opposite, getting tougher as the season goes on, which means they could wind up in first at the end of September before collapsing all over again. Should be a good race either way. The numbers shake out like this:

GB 10- 6

MN 9- 7

Chi 6-10

Det 6-10

Tough draw on the schedules; everybody plays the AFCS and NFCS, which by my count have only one really bad team between them. That means whoever wins the division probably won't get a bye and will have to play on wild card weekend. Could even be a third GB-MN game, who knows?

I surprised myself when I ran the schedules, I thought MN would come out on top. Maybe I should give 'em a fifth win in the crappy bracket, who knows? But what the hell, I stand by it. Besides, GB gets better odds to take the division at 2-1, so grab that. As for the Super Bowl, GB's 30-1 odds are tempting, but that 12-1 for MN seems a little overconfident. Let's throw GB in the pot.