Baltimore Ravens
Win total: 6
Division champ: 6-1
SB champ: 100-1
Why hated? Because I still haven't forgiven them for beating the Jets the last week of the season several years ago when one win would have gotten the Jets into the playoffs. Ah yes, I remember it well. Vinny ran 'em five wide for most of the game and put up over 500 yards on the vaunted Baltimore defense, but Jermaine Lewis ran back two punts for TDs, and that would prove to be the margin of victory.
Plus they're just annoying. And they wear purple. And what the hell's up with Kyle Boller? Give it up! The guy stinks!
Anyway, they play eight good teams (Clex2, Pitx2, @Ind, Phi, @Dal, Jac), so they're screwed right there. Still, anybody with a good defense can pull off weird upsets. They had NE on the ropes last year, then went out and lost to Mia the next week. I'll give 'em three. Then four OK teams (@Hou, TN, @NYG, was) and I think they win one of those. Then just four crappy teams (Cinx2, @Mia, Oak), they can take two of those. That's six, for my first push.
Should I flip a coin here? Nah. Just no action. By the way, in this division Vegas hasn't given anybody a win line with a half in it, so this might happen again. In fact the number goes up by one alphabetically, check it out! Simple minds, simple pleasures, I suppose.
Cincinnati Bengals
Win total: 7
Division champ: 9-2
SB champ: 60-1
Oh Bengals. I predicted big things for you last year. But I won't get fooled again. I know you suck.
When they had their playoff run I thought the whole franchise had turned a corner. Then they were mediocre the next year and I figured it was a temporary slump. But now they're back to just sucking year after year. Only now with more criminals than the old days. When's Marvin Lewis getting fired? Think he finishes out the season?
Funny thing about firing coaches: in the NFL, you never see coaches get fired early on in an attempt to salvage the season. Sometimes they get canned in December because it's inevitable, everybody knows they're gone and they're just lame ducks at that point. But in any other sport I can think offhand of teams that have won titles recently after firing their coach mid-season: the 2003 Marlins (I think), the 2006 Miami Heat and whichever was the last Devils team to win a cup (again, I think, and I can't be bothered to look either of those up). No real point here, just rambling.
Anyway, eight good teams (Clex2, @Dal, Pitx2, Jac, Phi, @Ind) for, let's say, two wins. Four decent teams (TN, @NYG, @Hou, Was) gives 'em... two more? Then four shitty teams (Balx2, @NYJ, KC) nets another two. That makes six for the under. Write it down.
Cleveland Browns
Win total: 8
Division champ: 5-2
SB champ: 40-1
Weird team. They won ten games last year and barely missed the playoffs. People are pickin' 'em to come back and be strong this year, but their QB's already hurt and Pretty Boy Quinn didn't look so hot in the preseason. Plus everybody knows their secondary rots, so you have to spot the other team a couple of deep passes each game. I don't think they're all that, but I didn't see 'em much last year and I worry that I might just be biased 'cause they're the Browns. So I've been counting them as a good team when I look at everybody else's schedule, but I'm not sure I really believe it.
Let's take a look. So they play six good teams (Dal, Pitx2, @Jac, Ind, @Phi) for maybe... two wins? I dunno, I just can't see them beating most of those teams. I don't care if they're at home, they're not beating Dal or Ind, those might be the two best teams in the league. (Might be. Might not. Settle down, NE fans.) So then they play six OK teams (NYG, @Was, Den, @Buf, Hou, @TN) and pick up maybe four more. That leaves four shitty teams (Balx2, Cinx2) and they're all intradivisional games, which are always tough to pick because the there's more familiarity between the teams, so that's where the weird upsets happen. But I'll say three. That's nine for the over. That seems like a good number, actually, a little regression to the mean from last year.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Win total: 9
Division champ: 5-7
SB champ: 15-1
This team is really good. Consistently so. I completely underestimated them last year, partly because they had a rookie coach whom I thought would need an adjustment year, partly because Roethcheeseburger had his best season yet. Yet. And I was wrong. Cle's the only team expected to challenge them for the division this year, and since I think they're a little overrated, it follows that I think Pit wins in a walk.
To wit: they play eight good teams (Clex2, @Phi, @Jac, Ind, SD, @NE, Dal). Holy shit, are they fucked. They have road games aginst good teams in three of their first five games. They get Ind and SD back-to-back, then @NE and Dal back-to-back. This schedule is a nightmare. I'm giving 'em four of these. Then they get four decent teams (Hou, NYG, @Was, @TN). They should win three of these. Pit always strikes me as a take-care-of-business kind of team, in that they don't pick up stupid losses by choking against clearly inferior teams. Until the playoffs, anyway. So out of the four crappy teams on their schedule (Balx2, Cinx2) I'm givin' 'em three, and that's just 'cause Cin always plays 'em tough for some reason. That makes ten for the over. Wow, really? I guess it comes down to them pulling off a few upsets against the big guys and not screwing up against the scrubs. Could happen.
So my tally looks like this:
Pit 10- 6
Cle 9- 7
Bal 6-10
Cin 6-10
Which is actually the same numbers I gave the NFCN. Only the teams have changed. I guess Vegas feels the same way I do about Cle, 'cause 5-2 is a pretty tasty number for a team a lot of people are picking to win here. And 5-7 is a pretty comfortable number for Pit. I'd take that.
As far as the Super Bowl odds go, I don't think the winner's coming out of this division, period, but I bet there's a bunch of people out there grabbing 40-1 on Cle. That's why bookies never go out of business, folks.
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