Glendale Cardinals
Win total: 8
Division champ: 9-4
SB champ: 50-1
Loaded. Stacked. Every year somebody picks them to be good. This is their year. This is when they break out. Bullshit. If you bench your first-round draft pick and hand the job to an over-the-hill vet you ain't winnin' shit. Just admit it.
They play six good teams (Dal, Seax2, @Phi, MN, NE), I'll give 'em... none. None. How about four good teams (@Was, Buf, @Car, NYG)? One. And as for those six bad teams (SFx2, Mia, @NYJ, StLx2)? OK, three. That makes four wins. Waaay under. So fucking under. God, why do people fall for this team year after year? This under is the safest bet of the preseason, safer than NE winning the AFCE. I mean, eight games? Are you serious? This team couldn't win eight games in a thirty-game season.
Saint Louis Rams
Win total: 61/2
Division champ: 11-2
SB champ: 75-1
I used to fall for these clowns year after year. The fact that they had so many fantasy stars made people overrate them, myself included. No more: they stink.
They play five good teams (@Phi, Seax2, Dal, @NE) and I'm being generous by saying they might win one. Actually, fuck that, no, zero. Maybe when they play their three OK teams (NYG, Buf, @Was), how about that? I'll give them one. And as for those eight shitty teams (AZx2, @NYJ, SFx2, Chi, Mia, @Atl)? Wow. The last nine weeks of their season is all shit teams plus Sea at home thrown in in December. Seriously, the last half of their season is an absolute joke. They could take half of those. That's five. Whoop-de-doo. Under.
San Francisco Forty-Niners
Win total: 6
Division champ: 11-2
SB champ: 100-1
Karma, baby. This is what you get for cheating the cap in the Montana and Young eras: a decade of misery. Plus about a season and a half of Garcia-to-T.O. magic, which really turned out to be little more than a cruel tease. Another team in this division that's benching its high-priced draft pick QB for a grizzled veteran. Yeah, good luck with that.
OK, five good teams (Seax2, NE, Phi, @Dal), I'll stay consistent and give 'em zero. Four mediocre teams (@NO, @NYG, @Buf, Was), three on the road, might net one. How 'bout them seven crap teams (AZx2, Det, StLx2, NYJ, @Mia)? Oh, let's say three and call it under. Enjoy!
Seattle Seahawks
Win total: 81/2
Division champ: 5-7
SB champ: 25-1
Eight and a half? Are you serious? That's it? I know they're boring but who's their competition? Let's take a look.
Four Good teams (GB, Phi, @Dal, NE) and I think they can take two. Seems fair, right? So then there's these four decent teams (@Buf, @NYG, @TB, Was) and I'm thinkin' they take three. Why not? And they round it out with a whopping eight bottom-feeding piece-of-shit teams (SFx2, StLx2, @Mia, AZx2, NYJ), six of them in their own division, of which, I mean, come on, they gotta take six, right? That makes eleven. So over. I mean, who are we kidding here?
And it shakes out like:
Sea 11- 5
StL 5-11
AZ 4-12
SF 4-12
And you know what? Yeah, it's that bad. Sea at 5-7 to take the division is free money people. And furthermore... 25-1 for the Super Bowl is nothing to sneeze at. Just sayin'.
Whooo, I'm done, it's after 2:00am, time to go to bed and get up and enjoy some football. GO JETS!
Atlanta Falcons
Win total: 41/2
Division champ: 15-1
SB champ: 200-1
What a pathetic mess. This team ain't doin' shit this year. Sad thing is, this division's anyone's for the taking this year. Anyone except the Falcs, that is. Who knows, maybe Matt Ryan or whatever that BC dude's name is (which I can't be bothered to look up) will be the next Ben Roethlisberger. Except that Big Ben had like, all the other pieces in place.
Let's see, four good teams (@GB, @Phi, @SD, @MN), all on the road, let's just call this four losses and move on. We got seven iffy teams (TBx2, Carx2, NOx2, Den) including all the division rivals, and I'm gonna give 'em one of those. That brings us to our five shitty teams (Det, KC, Chi, @oak, StL) and you know what? Four of those games are at home. I'm gonna go way out on a limb and say they win four of those. Not necessarily the four at home, but four of 'em. That's five for the over. I realise I've been making a lot of chalk picks here, but I'm ready to go out on a limb here and say the Falcs win more than four games. I realise that's the kind of bold prediction people come to the 'Noog to hear, and I'm more than happy to oblige.
Charlotte Panthers
Win total: 71/2
Division champ: 11-4
SB champ: 40-1
Good ol' Panthers. Gettin' "ol'", methinks. How much longer will DelHomme-to-Smith be a deadly combination? They've got a good rookie RB, so who knows? That's about all I have to say about this team.
Three good teams on the slate (@SD, @MN, @GB), all on the road... one win? Why not? Then six decent teams (TBx2, NOx2, Den, @NYG) for, say, three wins? And we fill it out with seven lousy teams (Chi, Atlx2, KC, AZ, @oak, Det), most of 'em at home, they should take five of these. That's nine, comfortably over.
New Orleans Saints
Win total: 81/2
Division champ: 11-10
SB champ: 18-1
America's team! Once again fucked by the weather. Poor bastards.
These guys are Vegas's pick, barely, but something rings default about that pick. I guess the pick is based entirely on Brees being the best QB in the division, hands down, but they really need Bush to step up if they want to, say, win a single playoff game.
They play three good teams (MN, SD, GB), all at home. Can they win two of those? Ummm... no. I'll go with one. How about six decent teams (TBx2, @Was, @Den, Carx2)? Let's give 'em two. I don't like those road games outside the division. They're in September, too, good chance for an early slide. That leaves seven crappy teams (SF, Oak, Atlx2, @KC, @Chi, @Det). I'll give 'em five, but that's still under. Not their year, methinks. Did I just use "methinks" twice in one column?
Tampa Buccaneers
Win total: 8
Division champ: 8-5
SB champ: 40-1
I always have a tendency to overrate these guys, but I think now I know better. They'll be lucky to be a middle-of-the-pack team. I mean, really, where's their strength at this point? Their legendary defense is hardly a force anymore, and their offense hasn't really stepped up to fill the gap.
They play five good teams (GB, Sea, @Dal, MN, SD), which doesn't bode well in this division. Four of 'em are home games, so I'll give 'em two. Plus five OK teams (NOx2, @Den, Carx2) for either two or three wins. I'm going with two. Then only six shit teams (Atlx2, @Chi, @KC, @Det, oak) with four on the road, and I'm gonna say they take three of those. And guess what, boys? Seven is under that total.
What a weird division. My numbers shake out like this:
Car 9- 7
NO 8- 8
TB 7- 9
Atl 5-11
Panthers, huh? OK then. Really, I don't know what I'm gonna say before I run these numbers, and I'm running 'em as I write the column. I'm as surprised as you are. Car it is. Their division odds are 11-4 which is good if you're confident, but... I'm not. Take it at your own risk. And forget the Super Bowl for any of these guys.
Denver Broncos
Win total: 71/2
Division champ: 4-1
SB champ: 40-1
Boy, Shanahan's really lost his lustre of late, hasn't he? Even the Broncos running game, in which supposedly you or I could be a 1,000-yard back, has been a little off these last couple seasons. No one's talking about him as a "hot seat" candidate just yet, but if Cutler flops this year then they will next summer.
They play five good teams (SDx2, Jac, @NE, @Cle), of which they can beat maybe two. They've beat NE a couple times in the past few years, so they always play them well for some reason. They get two shots at SD, Jac at home... who knows? Then there's four OK teams on the docket (NO, TB, @Car, Buf), with three of 'em at home. Can they win three of these? I think so. They round it out with seven losers (Oakx2, KCx2, Mia, @Atl, @NYJ). This division always has a lot of intradivisional upsets, so I'm gonna take a chance here and only giv 'em four wins. That makes nine for the over. Even if I'm being too generous with the three out of four in the middle they still take eight, so I think this one's pretty safe.
Kansas City Chiefs
Win total: 51/2
Division champ: 18-1
SB champ: 200-1
Yes, Vegas really rates them worse than the Raiders. These guys suck, no two ways about it. They shoulda traded for Favre, he would have been a classic KC QB. Remember Joe Montana? They went to a conference title game with him.
On the other hand, they only have to play three good teams (@NE, SDx2), of which they will surely lose all three. Then they get seven mediocre teams (Denx2, @Car, TN, TB, NO, Buf) with five at home. Could they win three of these? I'm gonna go with two. And we have our six shitty teams (Oakx2, @Atl, @NYJ, Mia, @Cin) for... three wins? Y'think? Whatever, that's five and that's under. Good luck to whatever chump they draft next year. How 'bout a quarterback?
Oakland Raiders
Win total: 6
Division champ: 8-1
SB champ: 75-1
Oh Al. Still Brooklyn's finest. (Did you know that? Erasmus Hall High, baby, in the heart of Flatbush.) Still ornery as ever. There's a school of thought which states that the Raiders will not be good again until Al Davis dies. It's a morbid thought, but a depressingly realistic one as well. I just hope he lives long enough to sign Michael Vick.
Let's see, three good teams (SDx2, NE), same three as KC, and like KC they won't win any of them. Seven fence-sitters (Denx2, @Buf, @NO, Car, Hou, @TB) for... two wins? It's a stretch, but why not? That leaves six bumblers (KCx2, NYJ, @Bal, Atl, @Mia), and it's hard to give them three of those. Whatever. Four wins, five wins, either way they're under.
San Diego Chargers
Win total: 101/2
Division champ: 1-5
SB champ: 7-1
The cream of the division, and quite frankly a should-be champ whose window may close soon. How much longer will Tomlinson be in his prime? RBs don't last long, y'know. Time to grow up, Phil Rivers. Would they have won already had Eli agreed to play there? The mind wanders...
I think they need to hope that NE and Ind play each other early in the playoffs so they only have to beat one of them. On the other hand, with Jac on the rise, it may be a moot point this year.
They'll be testing their mettle against three good teams (NE, @Pit, Ind), and you know what? I think they can take two of those. Then there's six OK teams (Car, Denx2, @Buf, @NO, @TB) of which they oughta beat at least four. Which leaves a whopping seven shitty teams (NYJ, Oakx2, @Mia, KCx2, Atl), and if they can't win six of those, I don't know what to tell you. That's twelve, that's the over, let's take it.
So it shakes out like this:
SD 12- 4
Den 9- 7
KC 5-11
Oak 4-12
Pretty predictable, I guess, but I really don't see any of these teams surprising anyone. Maybe Den. Maybe. Has Den got what it takes to make me hesitate to bet SD to take the division at 1-5 odds. I guess not. I hate the number, but I feel pretty comfortable about them winning. As for the Super Bowl? At 7-1? Really, shouldn't they be more like 10-1? I don't like it. Too many other good teams in the conference, too much Norv Turner. I mean, you're basically betting 7-1 odds that Manning and Brady's injuries are worse than they look. No thanks.
Houston Texans
Win total: 71/2
Division champ: 10-1
SB champ: 60-1
These guys looked decent last year. Eight wins, maybe? I think the QB's that Schaub guy who used to be a backup in Atlanta. Truth is, they still haven't reached the tipping point where a team becomes good enough to start getting national telecasts, so I can't remember the last time I saw them play.
They have to play eight good teams (@Pit, Jacx2, Indx2, @MN, @Cle, @GB), all but two of 'em on the road. Tough draw. Hard to give 'em more than two of those. So then they get only two decent teams (TNx2), in fact just one but they play 'em twice. Let's give 'em a split. That leaves six shitty teams (Bal, Mia, Det, Cin, @Oak, Chi), ah, there's the home slate. They should clean up here, I'll give 'em at least five. That would make eight for the over, and I'm being conservative on some of these estimates; they could win as many as ten.
Indianapolis Colts
Win total: 11
Division champ: 2-3
SB champ: 8-1
Whose minor injury will prove more detrimental to his or his team's overall performance, Manning's or Brady's? I'm guessing they both wind up toughing it out for all sixteen, but it could wind up being worse for the Colts. Both QBs play with stacked offenses, so they'll still put up big numbers and win a bunch of games, but the Colts clearly play in the tougher division (three playoff teams last year), whereas NE might as well be playing in the ACC for all the competition they'll have to win theirs.
By the way, why the fuck did they play five preseason games? Was one of them in another country or something? I guess I'd know this if I paid any attention to the preseason.
Anyway, Colts play eight good teams (@MN, Jacx2, @GB, NE, @Pit, @SD, @Cle) with the same awful home-road split as Hou. At least they get NE at home, but other than that I could easily see them losing three of these. On the other hand, out of the four mediocre teams (Houx2, TNx2) and four lousy teams (Chi, Bal, Cin, Det) they have to play, including six at home, they probably won't lose more than one. Let's give 'em twelve for the over. Ind always wins that many anyway.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Win total: 10
Division champ: 3-2
SB champ: 12-1
That playoff game against Pit was awesome. I think I watched it at work on a little 5" B&W TV, so it was even better because I was on the clock. Seriously, Gerrard's a monster, and if they play that well this year and shore up their blitz a little they can challenge Ind. I know that's not a very original prediction, but they really do look that good.
They'll play only six good teams (Indx2, Pit, Cle, MN, GB) with five of those coming at home. I'm tempted to give them five wins here, but I'll play it safe and say four. Six decent teams (TNx2, Buf, Houx2, @Den), and I really don't think they'll lose more than one of those. As for the four lousy teams (@Cin, @Det, @Chi, @Bal), well, that's where you wanna fill out your road slate, right? Plus all four of those are in November or later, so if they make it through the first two months without more than a couple losses they should be on a roll. I'm givin' 'em all four. That's thirteen, way over. Seriously, I think this is the best preseason bet on the board.
Nashville Titans
Win total: 8
Division champ: 8-1
SB champ: 40-1
So... what's the deal with Vince Young? Is he a good quarterback or not? He keeps putting up shitty numbers and winning games. Does he have great "intangibles" (whatever) or is the rest of the team propping him up? He seems to epitomise one of my favourite sportscaster clichés, the all-he-does, as in, "All he does is win football games." I know they made the playoffs last year, but I have a feeling they're an 8-8 team just waiting to regress to the mean. Let's look at the slate.
We start with eight good teams (Jacx2, MN, Indx2, GB, Cle, Pit) and, like Jac, they drew all the good teams in the AFCN and NFCN at home. That lucky break should net them an extra win or so, so I'll say they take maybe half of those. We go to the decent teams, just two (Houx2), I'll give 'em a split. That leaves six bottom-feeders (@Cin, @Bal, @KC, @Chi, NYJ, @Det) and again, like Jac, that's where most of their road games fall. I wanna say four wins off the top of my head, but I just can't look at that sorry-ass line-up and picture them losing to more that one of 'em. That's five more for, surprisingly, ten wins. Even if they win nine they still hit the over by my reckoning.
Weird. The schedules look pretty tough but I still wound up picking the over for all four teams. I guess they all look pretty good. Inevitably, one of them will lose a few early, fall apart, and wind up being a major disappointment. Hou's the most obvious candidate, but maybe I'm just saying that because I know less about them than the other three. If Manning's knee doesn't hold up it might be Ind, but I think rock bottom for them is only about 8-8. I think Jac's pretty bulletproof (barring injuries, natch), and i just can't see Jeff Fisher letting a season get away in TN. This division might really be that stacked. My numbers break down like this:
Jac 13-3
Ind 12-4
TN 10-6
Hou 8-8
Which makes Jac a mighty tasty pick to take the division at 3-2. 12-1 on the Super Bowl's a pretty good pick too, as is 8-1 on Ind. If you're gonna pick a few teams for SB bets, I'd throw 'em both in there.
Baltimore Ravens
Win total: 6
Division champ: 6-1
SB champ: 100-1
Why hated? Because I still haven't forgiven them for beating the Jets the last week of the season several years ago when one win would have gotten the Jets into the playoffs. Ah yes, I remember it well. Vinny ran 'em five wide for most of the game and put up over 500 yards on the vaunted Baltimore defense, but Jermaine Lewis ran back two punts for TDs, and that would prove to be the margin of victory.
Plus they're just annoying. And they wear purple. And what the hell's up with Kyle Boller? Give it up! The guy stinks!
Anyway, they play eight good teams (Clex2, Pitx2, @Ind, Phi, @Dal, Jac), so they're screwed right there. Still, anybody with a good defense can pull off weird upsets. They had NE on the ropes last year, then went out and lost to Mia the next week. I'll give 'em three. Then four OK teams (@Hou, TN, @NYG, was) and I think they win one of those. Then just four crappy teams (Cinx2, @Mia, Oak), they can take two of those. That's six, for my first push.
Should I flip a coin here? Nah. Just no action. By the way, in this division Vegas hasn't given anybody a win line with a half in it, so this might happen again. In fact the number goes up by one alphabetically, check it out! Simple minds, simple pleasures, I suppose.
Cincinnati Bengals
Win total: 7
Division champ: 9-2
SB champ: 60-1
Oh Bengals. I predicted big things for you last year. But I won't get fooled again. I know you suck.
When they had their playoff run I thought the whole franchise had turned a corner. Then they were mediocre the next year and I figured it was a temporary slump. But now they're back to just sucking year after year. Only now with more criminals than the old days. When's Marvin Lewis getting fired? Think he finishes out the season?
Funny thing about firing coaches: in the NFL, you never see coaches get fired early on in an attempt to salvage the season. Sometimes they get canned in December because it's inevitable, everybody knows they're gone and they're just lame ducks at that point. But in any other sport I can think offhand of teams that have won titles recently after firing their coach mid-season: the 2003 Marlins (I think), the 2006 Miami Heat and whichever was the last Devils team to win a cup (again, I think, and I can't be bothered to look either of those up). No real point here, just rambling.
Anyway, eight good teams (Clex2, @Dal, Pitx2, Jac, Phi, @Ind) for, let's say, two wins. Four decent teams (TN, @NYG, @Hou, Was) gives 'em... two more? Then four shitty teams (Balx2, @NYJ, KC) nets another two. That makes six for the under. Write it down.
Cleveland Browns
Win total: 8
Division champ: 5-2
SB champ: 40-1
Weird team. They won ten games last year and barely missed the playoffs. People are pickin' 'em to come back and be strong this year, but their QB's already hurt and Pretty Boy Quinn didn't look so hot in the preseason. Plus everybody knows their secondary rots, so you have to spot the other team a couple of deep passes each game. I don't think they're all that, but I didn't see 'em much last year and I worry that I might just be biased 'cause they're the Browns. So I've been counting them as a good team when I look at everybody else's schedule, but I'm not sure I really believe it.
Let's take a look. So they play six good teams (Dal, Pitx2, @Jac, Ind, @Phi) for maybe... two wins? I dunno, I just can't see them beating most of those teams. I don't care if they're at home, they're not beating Dal or Ind, those might be the two best teams in the league. (Might be. Might not. Settle down, NE fans.) So then they play six OK teams (NYG, @Was, Den, @Buf, Hou, @TN) and pick up maybe four more. That leaves four shitty teams (Balx2, Cinx2) and they're all intradivisional games, which are always tough to pick because the there's more familiarity between the teams, so that's where the weird upsets happen. But I'll say three. That's nine for the over. That seems like a good number, actually, a little regression to the mean from last year.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Win total: 9
Division champ: 5-7
SB champ: 15-1
This team is really good. Consistently so. I completely underestimated them last year, partly because they had a rookie coach whom I thought would need an adjustment year, partly because Roethcheeseburger had his best season yet. Yet. And I was wrong. Cle's the only team expected to challenge them for the division this year, and since I think they're a little overrated, it follows that I think Pit wins in a walk.
To wit: they play eight good teams (Clex2, @Phi, @Jac, Ind, SD, @NE, Dal). Holy shit, are they fucked. They have road games aginst good teams in three of their first five games. They get Ind and SD back-to-back, then @NE and Dal back-to-back. This schedule is a nightmare. I'm giving 'em four of these. Then they get four decent teams (Hou, NYG, @Was, @TN). They should win three of these. Pit always strikes me as a take-care-of-business kind of team, in that they don't pick up stupid losses by choking against clearly inferior teams. Until the playoffs, anyway. So out of the four crappy teams on their schedule (Balx2, Cinx2) I'm givin' 'em three, and that's just 'cause Cin always plays 'em tough for some reason. That makes ten for the over. Wow, really? I guess it comes down to them pulling off a few upsets against the big guys and not screwing up against the scrubs. Could happen.
So my tally looks like this:
Pit 10- 6
Cle 9- 7
Bal 6-10
Cin 6-10
Which is actually the same numbers I gave the NFCN. Only the teams have changed. I guess Vegas feels the same way I do about Cle, 'cause 5-2 is a pretty tasty number for a team a lot of people are picking to win here. And 5-7 is a pretty comfortable number for Pit. I'd take that.
As far as the Super Bowl odds go, I don't think the winner's coming out of this division, period, but I bet there's a bunch of people out there grabbing 40-1 on Cle. That's why bookies never go out of business, folks.
Balls of Spaghetti loves him some Vikes, so in his honour the NFCN is up next. Interesting to note that all four teams actually play in the city/state they claim to represent. That's old school, baby.
Chicago Bears
Win total: 71/2
Division champ: 11-2
SB champ: 50-1
Whatever. The Bears are the NFC's answer to the Bills: who cares? They decided that the QB who looked lost and overmatched in the Super Bowl two years ago still wasn't any good when they played him all season last year, so they're finally benching him in favour of a guy who sucked like four years ago. Why not hold a radio station contest and let a different fan start each week?
They're playing seven good teams (@Ind, Phi, MNx2, GBx2, Jac), of which they might beat two, presumably one them being Jac at home in December. Then they get five OK teams (@Car, TB, TN, NO, @Hou), of which they'll probably beat two. Again, they'll have southern sissies NO shivering by the lake in winter. That leaves only four shitty teams (Detx2, @Atl, @StL), and three of 'em are road games. Let's give 'em two here. Man, tough schedule. That comes to six wins for the under.
Detroit Lions
Win total: 61/2
Division champ: 5-1
SB champ: 75-1
Detroit may suck worse than the Bears, but at least they're fun and interesting in a Chinese restaurant kitchen sort of way. Remember last year when it looked like they'd go over .500 before they lost like their last ten games or something? Hell of a ride. Isn't it amazing that Matt Millen still has a job? Isn't it even more amazing that we've been saying that for like five straight years now?
The Lions will play six good teams (GBx2, MNx2, Jac, @Ind), of which they'll be lucky to beat one. Six more OK teams (@Hou, Was, @Car, TB, TN, NO) with four of 'em at home. That's a lucky draw, they could beat two. Which leaves four shitty teams (@Atl, @SF, Chix2), three on the road and none after the first week in November. What the hell, I'll give 'em three, that's six total, barely limboing in under the line.
Green Bay Packers
Win total: 81/2
Division champ: 2-1
SB champ: 30-1
Tough team to call because they've got everything in place for a deep post-season run except the most important position, which is being filled in by what might be described as an aging first-timer. Seriously, when did they draft Rodgers, like 2005? Still, even with their division's tough scheduling draw they should be one of the better teams in the conference.
They play six good teams (MNx2, Dal, @Sea, Ind, @Jac), four of them in the first half of the season, so you could see these guys falling behind and then storming back. Let's say they win three of those. Then five decent teams (@TB, @TN, @NO, Car, Hou), of which I'll give 'em another three. Rounding it out with five shitty teams (Detx2, Atl, Chix2), I'll grant them another four. That's ten wins for the over. Seems reasonable.
Minneapolis Vikings
Win total: 81/2
Division champ: 5-6
SB champ: 12-1
The popular favourite, which means they're screwed. Basically in the same boat as GB, in that they've got all the pieces in place but the QB. Difference is that their QB actually has a few starts under his belt, plus he shares the backfield with an all-world RB, which should be enough to put them over the top.
We begin with a mere four good teams (GBx2, Ind, @Jac), and I'll give 'em two of those. On to six decent teams (Car, @TN, @NO, Hou, @TB, NYG), and no reason they can't take three of those. Finally, six crappy teams (Detx2, Chix2, @AZ, Atl), of which I shall grant them four. That's nine, barely over.
Interesting to note that, like GB, MN's schedule is kinda front-loaded, so they may have to make up ground late. Also interesting to note that Det's schedule is the opposite, getting tougher as the season goes on, which means they could wind up in first at the end of September before collapsing all over again. Should be a good race either way. The numbers shake out like this:
GB 10- 6
MN 9- 7
Chi 6-10
Det 6-10
Tough draw on the schedules; everybody plays the AFCS and NFCS, which by my count have only one really bad team between them. That means whoever wins the division probably won't get a bye and will have to play on wild card weekend. Could even be a third GB-MN game, who knows?
I surprised myself when I ran the schedules, I thought MN would come out on top. Maybe I should give 'em a fifth win in the crappy bracket, who knows? But what the hell, I stand by it. Besides, GB gets better odds to take the division at 2-1, so grab that. As for the Super Bowl, GB's 30-1 odds are tempting, but that 12-1 for MN seems a little overconfident. Let's throw GB in the pot.
East Rutherford Jets
Win total: 8
Division champ: 5-1
SB champ: 25-1
Look, I'm biased. I love the Jets. But seriously, they're getting the same odds to win the Super Bowl as NYG and Phi? Really? Like, Favre's that seductive to the gambling world? That's also the same line as Sea. Let's not be hasty here, folks.
So they brought in a bunch of veterans to make a run right now. Not the strategy I would have chosen, but what do I know? Just seems to me like they've invested heavily in trying to go 9-7 and grab that sixth-seed wild card spot. Not a lot about this year's roster says "long term" to me. But what the hell, Favre's here, should be a wild ride. Let's go.
When I look at their schedule I see four good teams (NEx2, SD, @Sea), I'm thinkin' they win one of those, and that's being a total homer. Then four OK teams (Bufx2, @TN, Den), maybe two wins. And a big fat eight shit teams (Miax2, AZ, Cin, @Oak, KC, StL, @SF). What a putrid line-up. C'mon, Brett-O, you can win four of those, right? That makes seven. Gowunda go under, quoth Wire.
Foxborough Patriots
Win total: 12
Division champ: 1-9
SB champ: 3-1
Assuming that "Miami Gardens"(?) is a separate city, that means the Pats are the only club in the division that actually plays where they claim to represent. But all the other teams claim a city (actually, "New York" is ambiguous, but the Jets fail this litmus test whether it's a city or a state). The Pats don't just claim a state, they claim a whole region. If we're rewarding karma points for geographic accuracy, isn't that kinda like... cheating?
ZING!!! Enjoy hearing shitty jokes like that one for the rest of your lives, Pats fans!
Seriously, fuck these clowns. I would be perfectly happy if the Jets were to go 2-14 and just beat the Pats twice. Well, not perfectly, but at least somewhat satisfied. It's nice to think that just about anything will be considered a disappointment after the lofty statistical heights this team achieved last year (exception: actually winning the fucking Super Bowl), but other than that there's really not much solace for rival fans. They'll clinch the division title by the first week in December if Brady plays the entire season sitting in a Barcolounger, sooner if he stands up a few times a game.
And seriously, look at this schedule: Four good teams (@SD, @Ind, Pit, @Sea). Not too easy with three of 'em on the road, but they should win three. Three OK teams (Den, Bufx2), let's give 'em two. Conservatively. Nine utter shit teams (KC, NYJx2, Miax2, @SF, StL, @Oak, AZ). Are they gonna lose any of those games? Probably not. The Pats don't fuck up much. That's fourteen wins. Thirteen if you wanna give 'em one mulligan, but that's still over.
Miami Gardens Dolphins
Win total: 51/2
Division champ: 40-1
SB champ: 200-1
Chad, we hardly knew ye. Good luck down there, and I mean that with the utmost sincerity. Not a bad situation, really. Much like NE can't possibly improve on last year's regular season, Mia probably won't be any worse. They almost have to get better based solely on the law of averages.
They play four good teams (NEx2, SD, SEA), three of 'em at home. Won't matter, they're not winning any of those. Four decent teams (@Hou, Bufx2, @Den), three on the road. Tough break. Maybe they pull off one upset. Eight teams almost as lousy as they are (NYJx2, @AZ, Bal, Oak, @StL, SF, @KC). Three wins? How do you even pick something like this? Even if they beat half those crappy teams they still come out under, so I'm goin' with that.
Orchard Park Bills
Win total: 71/2
Division champ: 8-1
SB champ: 50-1
There comes a time when you have to wonder if your favourite team is even trying anymore. Can you remember the last breakout star on the Bills? I guess they've had a couple of good running backs they've subsequently let walk. The last exciting free agent signing? The last inspired coaching hire? The last time they started scheduling a few games a season in another country? I think the Wilson family wants out and I think this may get ugly in a Modell-moves-the-Browns kinda way. One of these years that stadium's getting trashed by an angry mob. More so.
So what to make of their schedule? Well, there's six good teams (Sea, @Jac, SD, NEx2, Cle), which is what you get for finishing second. They can win two of those. Two of the home games, I guess. I count one mediocre team (@Den). Kind of a toss-up, so I'll take the home team in that one. Which leaves nine crappy teams (Oak, @StL, @AZ, Miax2, NYJx2, @KC, SF). They can win half of those. Hell, I'll even round up to five. That's seven. Under, barely. I thought they'd be better, but looking at them more closely there's not really a lot to like about this team other than Lynch. Yawn.
So, whadda we got?
NE 14- 2
Buf 7- 9
NYJ 7- 9
Mia 5-11
NE could win this division without helmets. Even at 1-9 they're still free money. Even in the event of an off year there's really no one to challenge them.
As for the Super Bowl, NE's the only one worth considering. 3-1 kind of sucks, but they really are that good. If you're picking a group of teams to lay some SB bets, you almost can't afford not to include NE.
Is it too late for this season? Hell no. I'll try to blast through the whole league by Sunday. Since two of its teams are playing Thursday, I'll start with the NFC East. Also, this year I'll try to pick every line rather than just my "best bets," which tend to shake out just under .500 anyway. The numbers, as always, provided by my good friends at Sportsbook.com, which, believe it or not, still isn't blocked at my office. For God's sake, they block fucking YouTube here. I mean there. I'm not doing this shit at work. Seriously. That'd be a betrayal of my employer's trust. Fuck that.
East Rutherford Giants
Win total: 81/2
Division champ: 9-2
SB champ: 25-1
They're the defending champs and Vegas thinks they'll barely go .500. You know how coaches clip quotes from the paper where opponents run their mouths? The press calls it bulletin board material. Do you think coaches ever use Vegas lines as bulletin board material? "Well men, somebody out there thinks you're set to lose this Sunday. To lose by seven-and-a-half points. Anybody feel like provin' 'em wrong?"
Seriously, everybody knows the Giants weren't a dominant team last year, they just got hot at the right time and happened to match up well position-for-position against the Pats. This year the pass rush won't be nearly as good and Eli may never play four good games in a row for the rest of his career. Their schedule includes eight games against likely playoff teams (Sea, @Cle, @Pit, Dalx2, Phix2, MN) , including Dal & Phi back-to-back both times. They can win half those games, I guess. By my count, they get three OK teams (Wasx2, Car), so I'll give 'em two outta three, then five crappy teams (@StL, Cin, SF, Bal, @AZ), and I'll give 'em four of those. That's ten wins. Over.
Irving Cowboys
Win total: 101/2
Division champ: 5-8
SB champ: 6-1
A lot of people are picking them to go to the Super Bowl, which means they're screwed. Not because Romo can't win in the playoffs (they used to say that about Manning Elder), but because the spotlight makes it hard to see in front of you. It always does. Plus I'm not sold on Wade Philips and probably never will be.
Six good teams (@Cle, Phix2, @GB, Sea, @Pit) including four straight to open the season, which is rough. I'll say four. Five OK teams (TB, NYGx2, Wasx2), three wins: this division's just too evenly matched for me to pick sweeps with anybody. And rounding out the schedule with five crappy teams (Cin, @AZ, @StL, SF, Bal) which I'm gonna call five wins, that makes twelve. Seems reasonable. Over.
Landover R------s
Win total: 71/2
Division champ: 7-1
SB champ: 40-1
Everyone's picking them to come in last, and the sad thing is they probably will even though they could win, say, the NFCS in a walk. Hell, they could maybe even edge out Sea in the NFCW. Chalk this one up as a year of growing pains for Campbell and Zorn while they wait for the rest of the division to get a little older.
Seven good teams (Dalx2, Phix2, Cle, Pit, @Sea), three wins. Getting the upper half of the AFCN at home is nice, but that road game @Sea's a killer; I'm giving 'em two division splits and one of those AFCN games. Three OK teams (NYGx2, NO), they can take two of those. That leaves six crappy teams (AZ, StL, @Det, @Bal, @Cin, @SF), but four of 'em on the road. I'll give 'em both the home games and half the road ones for four. That's still nine wins. Man, this is a tough division. Over.
Philadelphia Eagles
Win total: 81/2
Division champ: 5-2
SB champ: 25-1
Am I biased in favour of the Eags because I live in Philly? I'm not a fan, but since I'm a Jets fan they're not rivals either. I think I just feel sorry for their asshole fans who surround me.
No, that's not it. Even before I moved there Don McNabb was my favourite non-Jet in the league, and he still is. I just love watching that guy play. If he starts sixteen games this year they might beat out Dal for the pennant. If McNabb and Westbrook both start sixteen games I say they take the division and a playoff bye. Yeah, I said it (like it's gonna happen).
Worth noting, by the way, that this is the only team that plays in the city it claims to represent. Hell, half this division plays in the wrong state. Having just finished Bissinger's A Prayer For the City I've developed a powerful disdain for suburbs and all who inhabit them, so this has to count for some good karma.
Let's see, five good teams (Dalx2, Pit, @Sea, Cle), they can take three of those. Four OK teams (Wasx2, NYGx2), and... I know I said I'm picking all splits in this division, but Philly should sweep one of those teams, so three. (I realise this predictions for each team may contradict one another, but whatever, I'm not trying to pick individual games here, I'm actually trying to avoid it and just predict season-long trends.) That gives them a whopping seven shitty teams on their schedule. Look at this parade of futility: StL, @Chi, @SF, Atl, @Cin, @Bal, AZ. That's half their road schedule. They can win five of those if the whole team wears bedroom slippers. Total: eleven. Over, baby.
So when I run the schedules it looks like this:
Dal 12-4
Phi 11-5
NYG 10-6
Was 9-7
Like I said, tough division. Still, Phi and Dal may be too close to call, but I said I'd call 'em all and I'm callin' it: Cowboys. I just wouldn't bet it at 5-8.
As for the Super Bowl? Dal are everybody's pick, and 6-1 is a pretty weak payoff. Phi, on the other hand, have almost as good a shot at 25-1 odds. I'll, I mean I'd, take that.
