WEEK 1 INJURY REPORT

Week one saw a number of high profile players lose their season to injuries: Brady, Merriman, Burleson, and (perhaps) Gallagher.

One leg tackle in Foxboro turned the Bretts from curious also rans with a shot at the wild card into serious AFC East contenders. Given the lackluster showings by San Diego and Indy, the Bretts look to be one of a handful of teams with some hope of making deep playoff runs. Another of those teams will be starting Kerry Collins this week when the Titans visit the Bengals in what promises to be a game that would make Rice and Temple cringe.

Back to the injury report for a moment, it's clear that Brady, Merriman and Burleson are done for the season. As for Gallagher, here is the latest:

LONDON, Ontario (AP) — British band Oasis has postponed its concert in London, Ontario, after a fan attacked and injured guitarist Noel Gallagher.

A statement on the band's Web site says Gallagher had bruises on his ribs and hip and was unable to perform Tuesday.

Gallagher was injured Sunday after a man ran onto the stage during a performance at the Virgin Festival in Toronto. While playing the song "Morning Glory," Gallagher was pushed from behind and fell onto his monitor speakers.

While Oasis fans regularly pelt the band with debris and attempt to physically harm them while playing anything from Be Here Now on, the fact that this injury occurred during one of the high points from What's the Story Morning Glory has left the rest of the band a little confused and worried about their prospects for the rest of the season.

My Two Cents

Brett's first game as a Jet reminded me of an old Kent Brockman (pictured here with Brett's wife Deanna) line:

It's a testament to the never say die, never think it through spirit of these Springfieldians . . .

Specifically, this line was called to mind when # 4 blindly chucked the ball toward the endzone on a 4th and 13 play and somehow found an open Jet for the touchdown. Brett used this same trick last year in overtime against the Giants with slightly less success. Abraham Zapruder was in Miami and has footage of this suspect play:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nm8k-p7tgSY

NFC West preview

Last one, people! It's 1:30am as I write this, so yes, i got it in under the wire for the 2008 NFL season. Hell yeah! I'm so drunk and I wanna go to bed now so I can get up tomorrow and watch football! This division rots. Everybody knows Seattle's winning in a walk. But let's run the numbers and see what we get.

Glendale Cardinals
Win total: 8

Division champ: 9-4

SB champ: 50-1

Loaded. Stacked. Every year somebody picks them to be good. This is their year. This is when they break out. Bullshit. If you bench your first-round draft pick and hand the job to an over-the-hill vet you ain't winnin' shit. Just admit it.

They play six good teams (Dal, Seax2, @Phi, MN, NE), I'll give 'em... none. None. How about four good teams (@Was, Buf, @Car, NYG)? One. And as for those six bad teams (SFx2, Mia, @NYJ, StLx2)? OK, three. That makes four wins. Waaay under. So fucking under. God, why do people fall for this team year after year? This under is the safest bet of the preseason, safer than NE winning the AFCE. I mean, eight games? Are you serious? This team couldn't win eight games in a thirty-game season.

Saint Louis Rams
Win total: 6¹/₂

Division champ: 11-2

SB champ: 75-1

I used to fall for these clowns year after year. The fact that they had so many fantasy stars made people overrate them, myself included. No more: they stink.

They play five good teams (@Phi, Seax2, Dal, @NE) and I'm being generous by saying they might win one. Actually, fuck that, no, zero. Maybe when they play their three OK teams (NYG, Buf, @Was), how about that? I'll give them one. And as for those eight shitty teams (AZx2, @NYJ, SFx2, Chi, Mia, @Atl)? Wow. The last nine weeks of their season is all shit teams plus Sea at home thrown in in December. Seriously, the last half of their season is an absolute joke. They could take half of those. That's five. Whoop-de-doo. Under.

San Francisco Forty-Niners
Win total: 6

Division champ: 11-2

SB champ: 100-1

Karma, baby. This is what you get for cheating the cap in the Montana and Young eras: a decade of misery. Plus about a season and a half of Garcia-to-T.O. magic, which really turned out to be little more than a cruel tease. Another team in this division that's benching its high-priced draft pick QB for a grizzled veteran. Yeah, good luck with that.

OK, five good teams (Seax2, NE, Phi, @Dal), I'll stay consistent and give 'em zero. Four mediocre teams (@NO, @NYG, @Buf, Was), three on the road, might net one. How 'bout them seven crap teams (AZx2, Det, StLx2, NYJ, @Mia)? Oh, let's say three and call it under. Enjoy!
Seattle Seahawks
Win total: 8¹/₂

Division champ: 5-7

SB champ: 25-1

Eight and a half? Are you serious? That's it? I know they're boring but who's their competition? Let's take a look.

Four Good teams (GB, Phi, @Dal, NE) and I think they can take two. Seems fair, right? So then there's these four decent teams (@Buf, @NYG, @TB, Was) and I'm thinkin' they take three. Why not? And they round it out with a whopping eight bottom-feeding piece-of-shit teams (SFx2, StLx2, @Mia, AZx2, NYJ), six of them in their own division, of which, I mean, come on, they gotta take six, right? That makes eleven. So over. I mean, who are we kidding here?

And it shakes out like:

Sea 11- 5

StL 5-11

AZ 4-12

SF 4-12

And you know what? Yeah, it's that bad. Sea at 5-7 to take the division is free money people. And furthermore... 25-1 for the Super Bowl is nothing to sneeze at. Just sayin'.

Whooo, I'm done, it's after 2:00am, time to go to bed and get up and enjoy some football. GO JETS!

NFC South preview

People, let's get this shit over with. Two divisions to go and it's still Saturday. Next up: NFC South. Weird division. Looks to me like three .500 teams and the Falcons. No real dominant team here. They play the NFCN and the AFCW, so schedules shouldn't be too tough. Let's take a look.

Atlanta Falcons

Win total: 4¹/₂

Division champ: 15-1

SB champ: 200-1

What a pathetic mess. This team ain't doin' shit this year. Sad thing is, this division's anyone's for the taking this year. Anyone except the Falcs, that is. Who knows, maybe Matt Ryan or whatever that BC dude's name is (which I can't be bothered to look up) will be the next Ben Roethlisberger. Except that Big Ben had like, all the other pieces in place.

Let's see, four good teams (@GB, @Phi, @SD, @MN), all on the road, let's just call this four losses and move on. We got seven iffy teams (TBx2, Carx2, NOx2, Den) including all the division rivals, and I'm gonna give 'em one of those. That brings us to our five shitty teams (Det, KC, Chi, @oak, StL) and you know what? Four of those games are at home. I'm gonna go way out on a limb and say they win four of those. Not necessarily the four at home, but four of 'em. That's five for the over. I realise I've been making a lot of chalk picks here, but I'm ready to go out on a limb here and say the Falcs win more than four games. I realise that's the kind of bold prediction people come to the 'Noog to hear, and I'm more than happy to oblige.

Charlotte Panthers

Win total: 7¹/₂

Division champ: 11-4

SB champ: 40-1

Good ol' Panthers. Gettin' "ol'", methinks. How much longer will DelHomme-to-Smith be a deadly combination? They've got a good rookie RB, so who knows? That's about all I have to say about this team.

Three good teams on the slate (@SD, @MN, @GB), all on the road... one win? Why not? Then six decent teams (TBx2, NOx2, Den, @NYG) for, say, three wins? And we fill it out with seven lousy teams (Chi, Atlx2, KC, AZ, @oak, Det), most of 'em at home, they should take five of these. That's nine, comfortably over.

New Orleans Saints

Win total: 8¹/₂

Division champ: 11-10

SB champ: 18-1

America's team! Once again fucked by the weather. Poor bastards.

These guys are Vegas's pick, barely, but something rings default about that pick. I guess the pick is based entirely on Brees being the best QB in the division, hands down, but they really need Bush to step up if they want to, say, win a single playoff game.

They play three good teams (MN, SD, GB), all at home. Can they win two of those? Ummm... no. I'll go with one. How about six decent teams (TBx2, @Was, @Den, Carx2)? Let's give 'em two. I don't like those road games outside the division. They're in September, too, good chance for an early slide. That leaves seven crappy teams (SF, Oak, Atlx2, @KC, @Chi, @Det). I'll give 'em five, but that's still under. Not their year, methinks. Did I just use "methinks" twice in one column?

Tampa Buccaneers

Win total: 8

Division champ: 8-5

SB champ: 40-1

I always have a tendency to overrate these guys, but I think now I know better. They'll be lucky to be a middle-of-the-pack team. I mean, really, where's their strength at this point? Their legendary defense is hardly a force anymore, and their offense hasn't really stepped up to fill the gap.

They play five good teams (GB, Sea, @Dal, MN, SD), which doesn't bode well in this division. Four of 'em are home games, so I'll give 'em two. Plus five OK teams (NOx2, @Den, Carx2) for either two or three wins. I'm going with two. Then only six shit teams (Atlx2, @Chi, @KC, @Det, oak) with four on the road, and I'm gonna say they take three of those. And guess what, boys? Seven is under that total.

What a weird division. My numbers shake out like this:

Car 9- 7

NO 8- 8

TB 7- 9

Atl 5-11

Panthers, huh? OK then. Really, I don't know what I'm gonna say before I run these numbers, and I'm running 'em as I write the column. I'm as surprised as you are. Car it is. Their division odds are 11-4 which is good if you're confident, but... I'm not. Take it at your own risk. And forget the Super Bowl for any of these guys.

AFC West preview

Okay, AFCW up next. They get to play the AFCE (easy) and the NFCS (medium) this year. I rate 'em one good, one decent, two lousy. Let's see what we got.

Denver Broncos
Win total: 7¹/₂

Division champ: 4-1

SB champ: 40-1

Boy, Shanahan's really lost his lustre of late, hasn't he? Even the Broncos running game, in which supposedly you or I could be a 1,000-yard back, has been a little off these last couple seasons. No one's talking about him as a "hot seat" candidate just yet, but if Cutler flops this year then they will next summer.

They play five good teams (SDx2, Jac, @NE, @Cle), of which they can beat maybe two. They've beat NE a couple times in the past few years, so they always play them well for some reason. They get two shots at SD, Jac at home... who knows? Then there's four OK teams on the docket (NO, TB, @Car, Buf), with three of 'em at home. Can they win three of these? I think so. They round it out with seven losers (Oakx2, KCx2, Mia, @Atl, @NYJ). This division always has a lot of intradivisional upsets, so I'm gonna take a chance here and only giv 'em four wins. That makes nine for the over. Even if I'm being too generous with the three out of four in the middle they still take eight, so I think this one's pretty safe.

Kansas City Chiefs
Win total: 5¹/₂

Division champ: 18-1

SB champ: 200-1

Yes, Vegas really rates them worse than the Raiders. These guys suck, no two ways about it. They shoulda traded for Favre, he would have been a classic KC QB. Remember Joe Montana? They went to a conference title game with him.

On the other hand, they only have to play three good teams (@NE, SDx2), of which they will surely lose all three. Then they get seven mediocre teams (Denx2, @Car, TN, TB, NO, Buf) with five at home. Could they win three of these? I'm gonna go with two. And we have our six shitty teams (Oakx2, @Atl, @NYJ, Mia, @Cin) for... three wins? Y'think? Whatever, that's five and that's under. Good luck to whatever chump they draft next year. How 'bout a quarterback?

Oakland Raiders
Win total: 6

Division champ: 8-1

SB champ: 75-1

Oh Al. Still Brooklyn's finest. (Did you know that? Erasmus Hall High, baby, in the heart of Flatbush.) Still ornery as ever. There's a school of thought which states that the Raiders will not be good again until Al Davis dies. It's a morbid thought, but a depressingly realistic one as well. I just hope he lives long enough to sign Michael Vick.

Let's see, three good teams (SDx2, NE), same three as KC, and like KC they won't win any of them. Seven fence-sitters (Denx2, @Buf, @NO, Car, Hou, @TB) for... two wins? It's a stretch, but why not? That leaves six bumblers (KCx2, NYJ, @Bal, Atl, @Mia), and it's hard to give them three of those. Whatever. Four wins, five wins, either way they're under.

San Diego Chargers
Win total: 10¹/₂

Division champ: 1-5

SB champ: 7-1

The cream of the division, and quite frankly a should-be champ whose window may close soon. How much longer will Tomlinson be in his prime? RBs don't last long, y'know. Time to grow up, Phil Rivers. Would they have won already had Eli agreed to play there? The mind wanders...

I think they need to hope that NE and Ind play each other early in the playoffs so they only have to beat one of them. On the other hand, with Jac on the rise, it may be a moot point this year.

They'll be testing their mettle against three good teams (NE, @Pit, Ind), and you know what? I think they can take two of those. Then there's six OK teams (Car, Denx2, @Buf, @NO, @TB) of which they oughta beat at least four. Which leaves a whopping seven shitty teams (NYJ, Oakx2, @Mia, KCx2, Atl), and if they can't win six of those, I don't know what to tell you. That's twelve, that's the over, let's take it.

So it shakes out like this:

SD 12- 4

Den 9- 7

KC 5-11

Oak 4-12

Pretty predictable, I guess, but I really don't see any of these teams surprising anyone. Maybe Den. Maybe. Has Den got what it takes to make me hesitate to bet SD to take the division at 1-5 odds. I guess not. I hate the number, but I feel pretty comfortable about them winning. As for the Super Bowl? At 7-1? Really, shouldn't they be more like 10-1? I don't like it. Too many other good teams in the conference, too much Norv Turner. I mean, you're basically betting 7-1 odds that Manning and Brady's injuries are worse than they look. No thanks.

AFC South preview

OK, didn't do shit yesterday, gotta barrel through and finish all these things today. Let's do the AFCS for no better reason than their the next one listed on the web page I'm using to read the schedules. They all play the AFCN and NFCN this year, which are both feast-or-famine divisions with two good teams, two shitty teams and nothing in between. Plus no terrible teams in the division (I rate them two good, two decent), so that makes for some tough schedules.

Houston Texans
Win total: 7¹/₂

Division champ: 10-1

SB champ: 60-1

These guys looked decent last year. Eight wins, maybe? I think the QB's that Schaub guy who used to be a backup in Atlanta. Truth is, they still haven't reached the tipping point where a team becomes good enough to start getting national telecasts, so I can't remember the last time I saw them play.

They have to play eight good teams (@Pit, Jacx2, Indx2, @MN, @Cle, @GB), all but two of 'em on the road. Tough draw. Hard to give 'em more than two of those. So then they get only two decent teams (TNx2), in fact just one but they play 'em twice. Let's give 'em a split. That leaves six shitty teams (Bal, Mia, Det, Cin, @Oak, Chi), ah, there's the home slate. They should clean up here, I'll give 'em at least five. That would make eight for the over, and I'm being conservative on some of these estimates; they could win as many as ten.

Indianapolis Colts
Win total: 11

Division champ: 2-3

SB champ: 8-1

Whose minor injury will prove more detrimental to his or his team's overall performance, Manning's or Brady's? I'm guessing they both wind up toughing it out for all sixteen, but it could wind up being worse for the Colts. Both QBs play with stacked offenses, so they'll still put up big numbers and win a bunch of games, but the Colts clearly play in the tougher division (three playoff teams last year), whereas NE might as well be playing in the ACC for all the competition they'll have to win theirs.

By the way, why the fuck did they play five preseason games? Was one of them in another country or something? I guess I'd know this if I paid any attention to the preseason.

Anyway, Colts play eight good teams (@MN, Jacx2, @GB, NE, @Pit, @SD, @Cle) with the same awful home-road split as Hou. At least they get NE at home, but other than that I could easily see them losing three of these. On the other hand, out of the four mediocre teams (Houx2, TNx2) and four lousy teams (Chi, Bal, Cin, Det) they have to play, including six at home, they probably won't lose more than one. Let's give 'em twelve for the over. Ind always wins that many anyway.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Win total: 10

Division champ: 3-2

SB champ: 12-1

That playoff game against Pit was awesome. I think I watched it at work on a little 5" B&W TV, so it was even better because I was on the clock. Seriously, Gerrard's a monster, and if they play that well this year and shore up their blitz a little they can challenge Ind. I know that's not a very original prediction, but they really do look that good.

They'll play only six good teams (Indx2, Pit, Cle, MN, GB) with five of those coming at home. I'm tempted to give them five wins here, but I'll play it safe and say four. Six decent teams (TNx2, Buf, Houx2, @Den), and I really don't think they'll lose more than one of those. As for the four lousy teams (@Cin, @Det, @Chi, @Bal), well, that's where you wanna fill out your road slate, right? Plus all four of those are in November or later, so if they make it through the first two months without more than a couple losses they should be on a roll. I'm givin' 'em all four. That's thirteen, way over. Seriously, I think this is the best preseason bet on the board.

Nashville Titans
Win total: 8

Division champ: 8-1

SB champ: 40-1

So... what's the deal with Vince Young? Is he a good quarterback or not? He keeps putting up shitty numbers and winning games. Does he have great "intangibles" (whatever) or is the rest of the team propping him up? He seems to epitomise one of my favourite sportscaster clichés, the all-he-does, as in, "All he does is win football games." I know they made the playoffs last year, but I have a feeling they're an 8-8 team just waiting to regress to the mean. Let's look at the slate.

We start with eight good teams (Jacx2, MN, Indx2, GB, Cle, Pit) and, like Jac, they drew all the good teams in the AFCN and NFCN at home. That lucky break should net them an extra win or so, so I'll say they take maybe half of those. We go to the decent teams, just two (Houx2), I'll give 'em a split. That leaves six bottom-feeders (@Cin, @Bal, @KC, @Chi, NYJ, @Det) and again, like Jac, that's where most of their road games fall. I wanna say four wins off the top of my head, but I just can't look at that sorry-ass line-up and picture them losing to more that one of 'em. That's five more for, surprisingly, ten wins. Even if they win nine they still hit the over by my reckoning.

Weird. The schedules look pretty tough but I still wound up picking the over for all four teams. I guess they all look pretty good. Inevitably, one of them will lose a few early, fall apart, and wind up being a major disappointment. Hou's the most obvious candidate, but maybe I'm just saying that because I know less about them than the other three. If Manning's knee doesn't hold up it might be Ind, but I think rock bottom for them is only about 8-8. I think Jac's pretty bulletproof (barring injuries, natch), and i just can't see Jeff Fisher letting a season get away in TN. This division might really be that stacked. My numbers break down like this:

Jac 13-3

Ind 12-4

TN 10-6

Hou 8-8

Which makes Jac a mighty tasty pick to take the division at 3-2. 12-1 on the Super Bowl's a pretty good pick too, as is 8-1 on Ind. If you're gonna pick a few teams for SB bets, I'd throw 'em both in there.

AFC North preview

And so, since Huntington is technically considered a Bengals market, I'm tackling the AFCN next for the 'Noog's prospective newest contributor M—. A division with two good teams, two bad teams and nothing in between. A division where they all have to play the AFCS and the NFCE, which have, to my mind, zero shitty teams between them. Tough line-up. We begin with the hated...

Baltimore Ravens

Win total: 6

Division champ: 6-1

SB champ: 100-1

Why hated? Because I still haven't forgiven them for beating the Jets the last week of the season several years ago when one win would have gotten the Jets into the playoffs. Ah yes, I remember it well. Vinny ran 'em five wide for most of the game and put up over 500 yards on the vaunted Baltimore defense, but Jermaine Lewis ran back two punts for TDs, and that would prove to be the margin of victory.

Plus they're just annoying. And they wear purple. And what the hell's up with Kyle Boller? Give it up! The guy stinks!

Anyway, they play eight good teams (Clex2, Pitx2, @Ind, Phi, @Dal, Jac), so they're screwed right there. Still, anybody with a good defense can pull off weird upsets. They had NE on the ropes last year, then went out and lost to Mia the next week. I'll give 'em three. Then four OK teams (@Hou, TN, @NYG, was) and I think they win one of those. Then just four crappy teams (Cinx2, @Mia, Oak), they can take two of those. That's six, for my first push.

Should I flip a coin here? Nah. Just no action. By the way, in this division Vegas hasn't given anybody a win line with a half in it, so this might happen again. In fact the number goes up by one alphabetically, check it out! Simple minds, simple pleasures, I suppose.

Cincinnati Bengals

Win total: 7

Division champ: 9-2

SB champ: 60-1

Oh Bengals. I predicted big things for you last year. But I won't get fooled again. I know you suck.

When they had their playoff run I thought the whole franchise had turned a corner. Then they were mediocre the next year and I figured it was a temporary slump. But now they're back to just sucking year after year. Only now with more criminals than the old days. When's Marvin Lewis getting fired? Think he finishes out the season?

Funny thing about firing coaches: in the NFL, you never see coaches get fired early on in an attempt to salvage the season. Sometimes they get canned in December because it's inevitable, everybody knows they're gone and they're just lame ducks at that point. But in any other sport I can think offhand of teams that have won titles recently after firing their coach mid-season: the 2003 Marlins (I think), the 2006 Miami Heat and whichever was the last Devils team to win a cup (again, I think, and I can't be bothered to look either of those up). No real point here, just rambling.

Anyway, eight good teams (Clex2, @Dal, Pitx2, Jac, Phi, @Ind) for, let's say, two wins. Four decent teams (TN, @NYG, @Hou, Was) gives 'em... two more? Then four shitty teams (Balx2, @NYJ, KC) nets another two. That makes six for the under. Write it down.

Cleveland Browns

Win total: 8

Division champ: 5-2

SB champ: 40-1

Weird team. They won ten games last year and barely missed the playoffs. People are pickin' 'em to come back and be strong this year, but their QB's already hurt and Pretty Boy Quinn didn't look so hot in the preseason. Plus everybody knows their secondary rots, so you have to spot the other team a couple of deep passes each game. I don't think they're all that, but I didn't see 'em much last year and I worry that I might just be biased 'cause they're the Browns. So I've been counting them as a good team when I look at everybody else's schedule, but I'm not sure I really believe it.

Let's take a look. So they play six good teams (Dal, Pitx2, @Jac, Ind, @Phi) for maybe... two wins? I dunno, I just can't see them beating most of those teams. I don't care if they're at home, they're not beating Dal or Ind, those might be the two best teams in the league. (Might be. Might not. Settle down, NE fans.) So then they play six OK teams (NYG, @Was, Den, @Buf, Hou, @TN) and pick up maybe four more. That leaves four shitty teams (Balx2, Cinx2) and they're all intradivisional games, which are always tough to pick because the there's more familiarity between the teams, so that's where the weird upsets happen. But I'll say three. That's nine for the over. That seems like a good number, actually, a little regression to the mean from last year.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Win total: 9

Division champ: 5-7

SB champ: 15-1

This team is really good. Consistently so. I completely underestimated them last year, partly because they had a rookie coach whom I thought would need an adjustment year, partly because Roethcheeseburger had his best season yet. Yet. And I was wrong. Cle's the only team expected to challenge them for the division this year, and since I think they're a little overrated, it follows that I think Pit wins in a walk.

To wit: they play eight good teams (Clex2, @Phi, @Jac, Ind, SD, @NE, Dal). Holy shit, are they fucked. They have road games aginst good teams in three of their first five games. They get Ind and SD back-to-back, then @NE and Dal back-to-back. This schedule is a nightmare. I'm giving 'em four of these. Then they get four decent teams (Hou, NYG, @Was, @TN). They should win three of these. Pit always strikes me as a take-care-of-business kind of team, in that they don't pick up stupid losses by choking against clearly inferior teams. Until the playoffs, anyway. So out of the four crappy teams on their schedule (Balx2, Cinx2) I'm givin' 'em three, and that's just 'cause Cin always plays 'em tough for some reason. That makes ten for the over. Wow, really? I guess it comes down to them pulling off a few upsets against the big guys and not screwing up against the scrubs. Could happen.

So my tally looks like this:

Pit 10- 6

Cle 9- 7

Bal 6-10

Cin 6-10

Which is actually the same numbers I gave the NFCN. Only the teams have changed. I guess Vegas feels the same way I do about Cle, 'cause 5-2 is a pretty tasty number for a team a lot of people are picking to win here. And 5-7 is a pretty comfortable number for Pit. I'd take that.

As far as the Super Bowl odds go, I don't think the winner's coming out of this division, period, but I bet there's a bunch of people out there grabbing 40-1 on Cle. That's why bookies never go out of business, folks.