NFC North preview

Folks, we are in the midst of what are known as two-a-days. I'll be previewing two divisions a day, hopefully, which means I'll knock 'em all out in time for kickoff Sunday. Both teams in the Thursday game are in the NFCE, which I did yesterday, so we're all set there. I'd say I'm sorry they're so late this year, but really, if you're looking here for gambling advice you've got bigger problems.

Balls of Spaghetti loves him some Vikes, so in his honour the NFCN is up next. Interesting to note that all four teams actually play in the city/state they claim to represent. That's old school, baby.

Chicago Bears

Win total: 7¹/₂

Division champ: 11-2

SB champ: 50-1

Whatever. The Bears are the NFC's answer to the Bills: who cares? They decided that the QB who looked lost and overmatched in the Super Bowl two years ago still wasn't any good when they played him all season last year, so they're finally benching him in favour of a guy who sucked like four years ago. Why not hold a radio station contest and let a different fan start each week?

They're playing seven good teams (@Ind, Phi, MNx2, GBx2, Jac), of which they might beat two, presumably one them being Jac at home in December. Then they get five OK teams (@Car, TB, TN, NO, @Hou), of which they'll probably beat two. Again, they'll have southern sissies NO shivering by the lake in winter. That leaves only four shitty teams (Detx2, @Atl, @StL), and three of 'em are road games. Let's give 'em two here. Man, tough schedule. That comes to six wins for the under.

Detroit Lions

Win total: 6¹/₂

Division champ: 5-1

SB champ: 75-1

Detroit may suck worse than the Bears, but at least they're fun and interesting in a Chinese restaurant kitchen sort of way. Remember last year when it looked like they'd go over .500 before they lost like their last ten games or something? Hell of a ride. Isn't it amazing that Matt Millen still has a job? Isn't it even more amazing that we've been saying that for like five straight years now?

The Lions will play six good teams (GBx2, MNx2, Jac, @Ind), of which they'll be lucky to beat one. Six more OK teams (@Hou, Was, @Car, TB, TN, NO) with four of 'em at home. That's a lucky draw, they could beat two. Which leaves four shitty teams (@Atl, @SF, Chix2), three on the road and none after the first week in November. What the hell, I'll give 'em three, that's six total, barely limboing in under the line.

Green Bay Packers

Win total: 8¹/₂

Division champ: 2-1

SB champ: 30-1

Tough team to call because they've got everything in place for a deep post-season run except the most important position, which is being filled in by what might be described as an aging first-timer. Seriously, when did they draft Rodgers, like 2005? Still, even with their division's tough scheduling draw they should be one of the better teams in the conference.

They play six good teams (MNx2, Dal, @Sea, Ind, @Jac), four of them in the first half of the season, so you could see these guys falling behind and then storming back. Let's say they win three of those. Then five decent teams (@TB, @TN, @NO, Car, Hou), of which I'll give 'em another three. Rounding it out with five shitty teams (Detx2, Atl, Chix2), I'll grant them another four. That's ten wins for the over. Seems reasonable.

Minneapolis Vikings

Win total: 8¹/₂

Division champ: 5-6

SB champ: 12-1

The popular favourite, which means they're screwed. Basically in the same boat as GB, in that they've got all the pieces in place but the QB. Difference is that their QB actually has a few starts under his belt, plus he shares the backfield with an all-world RB, which should be enough to put them over the top.

We begin with a mere four good teams (GBx2, Ind, @Jac), and I'll give 'em two of those. On to six decent teams (Car, @TN, @NO, Hou, @TB, NYG), and no reason they can't take three of those. Finally, six crappy teams (Detx2, Chix2, @AZ, Atl), of which I shall grant them four. That's nine, barely over.

Interesting to note that, like GB, MN's schedule is kinda front-loaded, so they may have to make up ground late. Also interesting to note that Det's schedule is the opposite, getting tougher as the season goes on, which means they could wind up in first at the end of September before collapsing all over again. Should be a good race either way. The numbers shake out like this:

GB 10- 6

MN 9- 7

Chi 6-10

Det 6-10

Tough draw on the schedules; everybody plays the AFCS and NFCS, which by my count have only one really bad team between them. That means whoever wins the division probably won't get a bye and will have to play on wild card weekend. Could even be a third GB-MN game, who knows?

I surprised myself when I ran the schedules, I thought MN would come out on top. Maybe I should give 'em a fifth win in the crappy bracket, who knows? But what the hell, I stand by it. Besides, GB gets better odds to take the division at 2-1, so grab that. As for the Super Bowl, GB's 30-1 odds are tempting, but that 12-1 for MN seems a little overconfident. Let's throw GB in the pot.

AFC East preview

I'm gonna do the AFCE next because my fave team's in it. Tomorrow I'll tryan tackle the NFCN and AFCN in honour of my esteemed collaborators here at the 'Noog. The lines, as always, from Sportsbook, where, incidentally, Obama is a 1-2 favourite. McCain? 3-2. Place your bets, gentlemen.

East Rutherford Jets

Win total: 8

Division champ: 5-1

SB champ: 25-1

Look, I'm biased. I love the Jets. But seriously, they're getting the same odds to win the Super Bowl as NYG and Phi? Really? Like, Favre's that seductive to the gambling world? That's also the same line as Sea. Let's not be hasty here, folks.

So they brought in a bunch of veterans to make a run right now. Not the strategy I would have chosen, but what do I know? Just seems to me like they've invested heavily in trying to go 9-7 and grab that sixth-seed wild card spot. Not a lot about this year's roster says "long term" to me. But what the hell, Favre's here, should be a wild ride. Let's go.

When I look at their schedule I see four good teams (NEx2, SD, @Sea), I'm thinkin' they win one of those, and that's being a total homer. Then four OK teams (Bufx2, @TN, Den), maybe two wins. And a big fat eight shit teams (Miax2, AZ, Cin, @Oak, KC, StL, @SF). What a putrid line-up. C'mon, Brett-O, you can win four of those, right? That makes seven. Gowunda go under, quoth Wire.

Foxborough Patriots
Win total: 12

Division champ: 1-9

SB champ: 3-1

Assuming that "Miami Gardens"(?) is a separate city, that means the Pats are the only club in the division that actually plays where they claim to represent. But all the other teams claim a city (actually, "New York" is ambiguous, but the Jets fail this litmus test whether it's a city or a state). The Pats don't just claim a state, they claim a whole region. If we're rewarding karma points for geographic accuracy, isn't that kinda like... cheating?

ZING!!! Enjoy hearing shitty jokes like that one for the rest of your lives, Pats fans!

Seriously, fuck these clowns. I would be perfectly happy if the Jets were to go 2-14 and just beat the Pats twice. Well, not perfectly, but at least somewhat satisfied. It's nice to think that just about anything will be considered a disappointment after the lofty statistical heights this team achieved last year (exception: actually winning the fucking Super Bowl), but other than that there's really not much solace for rival fans. They'll clinch the division title by the first week in December if Brady plays the entire season sitting in a Barcolounger, sooner if he stands up a few times a game.

And seriously, look at this schedule: Four good teams (@SD, @Ind, Pit, @Sea). Not too easy with three of 'em on the road, but they should win three. Three OK teams (Den, Bufx2), let's give 'em two. Conservatively. Nine utter shit teams (KC, NYJx2, Miax2, @SF, StL, @Oak, AZ). Are they gonna lose any of those games? Probably not. The Pats don't fuck up much. That's fourteen wins. Thirteen if you wanna give 'em one mulligan, but that's still over.

Miami Gardens Dolphins
Win total: 5¹/₂

Division champ: 40-1

SB champ: 200-1

Chad, we hardly knew ye. Good luck down there, and I mean that with the utmost sincerity. Not a bad situation, really. Much like NE can't possibly improve on last year's regular season, Mia probably won't be any worse. They almost have to get better based solely on the law of averages.

They play four good teams (NEx2, SD, SEA), three of 'em at home. Won't matter, they're not winning any of those. Four decent teams (@Hou, Bufx2, @Den), three on the road. Tough break. Maybe they pull off one upset. Eight teams almost as lousy as they are (NYJx2, @AZ, Bal, Oak, @StL, SF, @KC). Three wins? How do you even pick something like this? Even if they beat half those crappy teams they still come out under, so I'm goin' with that.

Orchard Park Bills
Win total: 7¹/₂

Division champ: 8-1

SB champ: 50-1

There comes a time when you have to wonder if your favourite team is even trying anymore. Can you remember the last breakout star on the Bills? I guess they've had a couple of good running backs they've subsequently let walk. The last exciting free agent signing? The last inspired coaching hire? The last time they started scheduling a few games a season in another country? I think the Wilson family wants out and I think this may get ugly in a Modell-moves-the-Browns kinda way. One of these years that stadium's getting trashed by an angry mob. More so.

So what to make of their schedule? Well, there's six good teams (Sea, @Jac, SD, NEx2, Cle), which is what you get for finishing second. They can win two of those. Two of the home games, I guess. I count one mediocre team (@Den). Kind of a toss-up, so I'll take the home team in that one. Which leaves nine crappy teams (Oak, @StL, @AZ, Miax2, NYJx2, @KC, SF). They can win half of those. Hell, I'll even round up to five. That's seven. Under, barely. I thought they'd be better, but looking at them more closely there's not really a lot to like about this team other than Lynch. Yawn.

So, whadda we got?

NE 14- 2

Buf 7- 9

NYJ 7- 9

Mia 5-11

NE could win this division without helmets. Even at 1-9 they're still free money. Even in the event of an off year there's really no one to challenge them.

As for the Super Bowl, NE's the only one worth considering. 3-1 kind of sucks, but they really are that good. If you're picking a group of teams to lay some SB bets, you almost can't afford not to include NE.

NFC East preview

Whoa, hey! Guess who's been blowing off previewing the season? I've run through the early betting lines for the past couple of years over here, and was surprised when two people asked why I hadn't done it yet this year. Surprised because I didn't really think anybody read them. Live and learn.

Is it too late for this season? Hell no. I'll try to blast through the whole league by Sunday. Since two of its teams are playing Thursday, I'll start with the NFC East. Also, this year I'll try to pick every line rather than just my "best bets," which tend to shake out just under .500 anyway. The numbers, as always, provided by my good friends at Sportsbook.com, which, believe it or not, still isn't blocked at my office. For God's sake, they block fucking YouTube here. I mean there. I'm not doing this shit at work. Seriously. That'd be a betrayal of my employer's trust. Fuck that.

East Rutherford Giants

Win total: 8¹/₂

Division champ: 9-2

SB champ: 25-1

They're the defending champs and Vegas thinks they'll barely go .500. You know how coaches clip quotes from the paper where opponents run their mouths? The press calls it bulletin board material. Do you think coaches ever use Vegas lines as bulletin board material? "Well men, somebody out there thinks you're set to lose this Sunday. To lose by seven-and-a-half points. Anybody feel like provin' 'em wrong?"

Seriously, everybody knows the Giants weren't a dominant team last year, they just got hot at the right time and happened to match up well position-for-position against the Pats. This year the pass rush won't be nearly as good and Eli may never play four good games in a row for the rest of his career. Their schedule includes eight games against likely playoff teams (Sea, @Cle, @Pit, Dalx2, Phix2, MN) , including Dal & Phi back-to-back both times. They can win half those games, I guess. By my count, they get three OK teams (Wasx2, Car), so I'll give 'em two outta three, then five crappy teams (@StL, Cin, SF, Bal, @AZ), and I'll give 'em four of those. That's ten wins. Over.

Irving Cowboys
Win total: 10¹/₂

Division champ: 5-8

SB champ: 6-1

A lot of people are picking them to go to the Super Bowl, which means they're screwed. Not because Romo can't win in the playoffs (they used to say that about Manning Elder), but because the spotlight makes it hard to see in front of you. It always does. Plus I'm not sold on Wade Philips and probably never will be.

Six good teams (@Cle, Phix2, @GB, Sea, @Pit) including four straight to open the season, which is rough. I'll say four. Five OK teams (TB, NYGx2, Wasx2), three wins: this division's just too evenly matched for me to pick sweeps with anybody. And rounding out the schedule with five crappy teams (Cin, @AZ, @StL, SF, Bal) which I'm gonna call five wins, that makes twelve. Seems reasonable. Over.

Landover R------s
Win total: 7¹/₂

Division champ: 7-1

SB champ: 40-1

Everyone's picking them to come in last, and the sad thing is they probably will even though they could win, say, the NFCS in a walk. Hell, they could maybe even edge out Sea in the NFCW. Chalk this one up as a year of growing pains for Campbell and Zorn while they wait for the rest of the division to get a little older.

Seven good teams (Dalx2, Phix2, Cle, Pit, @Sea), three wins. Getting the upper half of the AFCN at home is nice, but that road game @Sea's a killer; I'm giving 'em two division splits and one of those AFCN games. Three OK teams (NYGx2, NO), they can take two of those. That leaves six crappy teams (AZ, StL, @Det, @Bal, @Cin, @SF), but four of 'em on the road. I'll give 'em both the home games and half the road ones for four. That's still nine wins. Man, this is a tough division. Over.

Philadelphia Eagles
Win total: 8¹/₂

Division champ: 5-2

SB champ: 25-1

Am I biased in favour of the Eags because I live in Philly? I'm not a fan, but since I'm a Jets fan they're not rivals either. I think I just feel sorry for their asshole fans who surround me.

No, that's not it. Even before I moved there Don McNabb was my favourite non-Jet in the league, and he still is. I just love watching that guy play. If he starts sixteen games this year they might beat out Dal for the pennant. If McNabb and Westbrook both start sixteen games I say they take the division and a playoff bye. Yeah, I said it (like it's gonna happen).

Worth noting, by the way, that this is the only team that plays in the city it claims to represent. Hell, half this division plays in the wrong state. Having just finished Bissinger's A Prayer For the City I've developed a powerful disdain for suburbs and all who inhabit them, so this has to count for some good karma.

Let's see, five good teams (Dalx2, Pit, @Sea, Cle), they can take three of those. Four OK teams (Wasx2, NYGx2), and... I know I said I'm picking all splits in this division, but Philly should sweep one of those teams, so three. (I realise this predictions for each team may contradict one another, but whatever, I'm not trying to pick individual games here, I'm actually trying to avoid it and just predict season-long trends.) That gives them a whopping seven shitty teams on their schedule. Look at this parade of futility: StL, @Chi, @SF, Atl, @Cin, @Bal, AZ. That's half their road schedule. They can win five of those if the whole team wears bedroom slippers. Total: eleven. Over, baby.

So when I run the schedules it looks like this:

Dal 12-4

Phi 11-5

NYG 10-6

Was 9-7

Like I said, tough division. Still, Phi and Dal may be too close to call, but I said I'd call 'em all and I'm callin' it: Cowboys. I just wouldn't bet it at 5-8.

As for the Super Bowl? Dal are everybody's pick, and 6-1 is a pretty weak payoff. Phi, on the other hand, have almost as good a shot at 25-1 odds. I'll, I mean I'd, take that.

Big Brett's last night on the bench

No one debates the utter uselessness and flagrant ripoffhood of the NFL preseason. Oh sure, we understand the importance of letting rookies and backups audition for jobs, as well as the necessity of getting the veterans physically acclimated to the rigors of the season, but from a fan's perspective they're a sham. It'd be one thing if they were marketed like the scrimmage games they are with cut-rate tickets and such, but they're nationally televised and included in all season ticket package. All so loyal paying customers can go sit in a half-empty stadium and see their favourite players sit around and watch the same half-assed game as the fans are forced to watch. Fuck you, NFL.

And yet Sports Illustrated's premiere well-fed latté-addict Peter King took the time a couple weeks ago to scold Jets fans, most of whom live on Long Island, a two-hour one-way drive from Giants Stadium, for not showing up to check out the Brettster's public debut in their laundry of choice. The stadium was half-empty, he opines. Boo fucking hoo. King, keep in mind, gets a press-box buffet and his gas reimbursed if he goes to a game. And he seems to think that, five years from now, this meaningless charade, in which Favre took about ten snaps, will be remembered as the big guy's Jets debut. Bullshit. Favre's Jets debut occurs next weekend. No one's gonna remember who they played five days from now.

The next day King defended himself against a deluge of hate mail by claiming that when the Knicks sign LeBron in a couple years, the garden's gonna be packed for the first exhibition game. Fine, King. Note, by the way, that the Garden is conveniently located in the middle of Manhattan and seats about half as many patrons as Giants Stadium. So if the stadium was half-full, we may conclude... that King is woefully out of touch with actual football fans.

Having said that... the wife and I were eager to shell out $30 a ducat to some online scalper when the boys came to Philly this past Thursday for their final preseason "tilt" with the local green before the games start counting. We showed our green pride in more ways than one, including traveling to the stadium via bicycles with a few sixers in tow for a bit of bike-gating. We were given a friendly razzing for our environmentally conscious ways by a nearby family of Eags fans who showed up for the game in a school bus painted green with a satellite dish on the roof, a plasma TV hung on the back door, a full liquor bar and a license plate that read TAILG8.

I was given exactly zero shit for wearing a Jets jersey (Mo Lewis, #57, wreckanize, foo') from anyone but the beer-stand lady, who threatened to withhold my change until I denounced the Mets (I stood firm). I guess the only good thing I can say about preseason games is that everybody's still undefeated, so Philly phans aren't homicidally furious yet. Give 'em a month.

And as for the game? Well, I'd never been to a preseason game before and I may not go again. As someone obsessed enough with the Jets that I have, on more than one occasion, gone to a game alone (yup, that was me), let me just say that preseason games barely make it across the worth-it line with a big group of friends and half-price tickets. I remember the game being close, and i remember the Jets winning, but i don't remember giving a shit. And I don't remember a single standout play.

Which brings us to our most important point: how'd Brett-boy look? Relaxed. He stood on the sideline the whole game. Rip. Off.

Who will take Brettie to the prom?

Erstwhile 'Nuger Balls of Sound emailed me this little visual mashup the other day:

A witty and incisive dig at a mercurial and self-centered superstar who forces his employer and, by extension, an entire fanbase to suffer through his own indecisiveness? Or a natural outgrowth of a culture, fostered by a federal executive administration that refuses to admit it erred in launching an unnecessary, illegal and unprovoked foreign war, and abetted by media mouthpiece Fox News, in which anyone with the fortitude to, upon further reflection, change one's mind for the better is derided as a "flip-flopper"?

Or is the message even more subtle than that? The Hollywood starlet being replaced in the photos above is none other than Lindsay Lohan, another notoriously strung-out, drug-addled drunk.

News flash, stop! Brett Favre is tired, stop!

Brett Favre is known, more than anything else save possibly his career interceptions record, for his legendary durability. He's started like 1,000 games in a row and he never gets injured. In fact, linebackers get injured trying to tackle him. He's made of granite.

Unless he has to practice more than four straight days. According to this AP article, he said he was tired after practice this morning. Tired. So he asked Mangini to go easy on him for the afternoon practice. Here's some choice quotes:

• "My arm's kind of dragging a little bit today."


• "To be honest with you, I'm surprised... that I've been able to make it through every practice so far."


• "I wondered this morning when I got up, 'What in the heck am I doing?'"


• "I could go into a game and I think I could manage a game OK."


• "I felt 38 today."

Oh yeah! That, ladies and gentlemen, is the voice of a winner. A conqueror. An immovable force of nature.

One wonders whether he talks like this in the huddle. "Well, guys, I'm gettin' kinda pooped out here, but let's just run a few more plays and we can go home. Break!"

Let the season begin! Bring 'em on!

The Official Response

M— emailed me a couple weeks ago when the Favre soap opera started revving up and was like, "You should totally get Favregnugen goin' again." He was right, but I put it off outta sheer laziness. Given the most recent development, it looks like the time has come to break the silence.

So Spaghetti texted me like a week-ana-half ago "Favre to Jets?" and scared the shit outta me. I immediately logged on somewhere and found out it was just an unsubstantiated rumour. Crisis averted.

After all, I don't want fuckin' Favre on the Jets. What a waste of time. Here's why: they've got a fragile veteran and underdeveloped next-guy-in-waiting on the roster at QB. The rest of the team is clearly in rebuilding mode. So you need to see what the kid's got this season, and draft another one if he doesn't work out, right? Meanwhile, you keep building the rest of the offense.

Problem is that the Jets made a bunch of win-now veteran acquisitions in the offseason (Jenkins, Faneca, Pace) and seem to think they're ready to do just that. Bullshit. This team looks lucky to win eight games.

And I'm okay with rebuilding. If the team's gonna suck anyway, at least make it a productive season by getting the younger players some valuable experience. The problem with getting a guy like Favre (well, okay, just Favre; there's no one really like him) is that he sets back the much-needed long-term development of the quarterback position by at least a season, maybe more. Which brings us to another problem: the Packer organisation no longer has to put up with the annual will-he-won't-he retirement dance that's been going on in Green Bay for the past four years or so. Guess who gets the honours now?

So I'm at work on Friday night and guess who calls to tell me the big news: my man Spaghetti. Yup, it's happened, it's real, no turning back from here. Which means now I get stuck with the task of talking myself into liking the trade and getting excited about the Favre "era" in New York. Here's what I got so far.

The Jets aren't going anywhere this year. Like a said, 8-8 if they're lucky. I don't care if they trade for Tom Brady at QB, they're still not winning a playoff game. Now last year they stunk even worse than they're gonna stink this year, but I still watched (or sometimes listened to) every game.

Since I moved to Philly I can't watch most of 'em at home, I have to go out to a bar. The only bar I know of in Philly with the NFL's satellite package is a place in midtown called the Fox & Hound. F&H is one of those horrible, horrible overcrowded sports bars that becomes unbearable every Sunday afternoon in the fall. So I'd head up there every Sunday and sit in a giant cave full of obnoxious Steeler fans, look for a seat and crane my neck towards to the one little TV in the corner showing the Jets game. And the most galling thing about the experience was that the Jets weren't just bad, they were fucking boring. They were so awful they'd usually be out of the running by halftime. Unimaginitive passing game, uninspired quarterback play, a running game that struggled to pick up 3rd-and-2's, defense that couldn't stop a decent high school team. Yuck.

So what did I do? Sat there and watched. The whole stupid game. Drinking my 22 ounce frozen mug of Bud Light and eating awful sports bar food, waiting for it to be over. Why? Why not just leave? Because I'm an idiot I guess, an idiot and a glutton for punishment. And because, win lose or suck, I love the New York Jets. I can't help it.

Which brings us back to this year. The Jets will not be particularly good, but they'll be competitive. And more importantly, they'll be interesting. They'll be fun. Say what you will about Favre (undisciplined, uncoachable, too old, makes bad descisions, throws too many picks), but he's never boring. Ever. And his teams are never out of it. For every time he's killed a fourth quarter comeback drive with a head-scratching interception, there's at least two more when he pulled it off. He's always a blast to watch and this year should be no different. Just ask John Madden. Or Peter King.

So that's all I got. The Jets are still gonna stick but they'll be fun. Let the season begin.

Of course, that also means this blog's comin' back in effect full force. Since, as has so often been pointed out, fans just root for laundry, the tone will be changing drastically from condescending snark to hero worship and, presumably, a lot of excuse-making. I'll re-do the masthead this week and we'll be on our way. We're gonna call it "Favre: the Deeper Shade of Green Years". Enjoy!